About junnies

At heart, I am a fundamentalist, and cannot trade based on technicals alone. Yet I recognize that technicals can often significantly clean up the "efficiency' of one's trades. But at the core, I rely heavily on fundamentals.

I like to bet big on a few big ideas so i hold on average only 3-6 counters at any one time. I use both FA and TA and try to stack up all the short-term and long-term probabilities in my favor to absolutely shred my risk to the minimum (since i bet big) and maximise my upside in terms of timing, entry, and exit. I bet on the biggest, best ideas I have and will pass up on many opportunities if the Fa.

Fundamental analysis enables you to step before, or go against, the crowd, and tells you what the right price should be. Technical analysis teaches you to read, follow, and move in alignment with the crowd and see what price is trying to do.

An edge is an advantage you have in a situation. FA and TA are edges. So is being able to think clearly and rationally without stress. With proper risk management and position sizing, one avoids succumbing to fear and greed. Greed tempts a person to bet too big, and once the bet goes against them, they easily panic. Conversely, if one bets an appropriate amount (trade well instead of trying to make fast money), they will be able to objectively assess the appropriate action to take (average down/up, do nothing, or cut loss).

Fundamentals create the primary probability wave of how price moves. No bear market can happen in an economic boom, and no bull rally can erupt in a terrible stock. However, market sentiment, technical action, and a myriad of other factors contribute their own probability waves. The summation of how all of these probability waves play out in time and space determines how price moves. As such, I always focus on fundamentals first so as to know which direction price will move. Then i study the price action to see what the price is trying to do to determine whether to enter or to wait.