$AEM(AWX.SI) A 120K shares in 2015 before split .... to 180K shares post split in 2017 .... and multi bagger to now >$1mil profit.

AEM still has quite a strong upside to go ... and, the bonus is very, very valuable. AEM price doubled in less than 3 weeks ex-bonus in Apr 2017 and history could play out itself again due to the very strong FY18 guidance ....

(1) AEM still has very strong forward revenue and profit fundamentals,
(2) strong barrier to entry due to patented technology serving the world biggest Tech Giant Intel in the hot and huge IoT and 5G biz,
(3) a very shrewd and engaging BOD controlling the coy,
(4) a very high M&A potential target for the much bigger US competitors such as Cohu, and ..... finally, and most importantly,
(5) a very small 67mil float that must somehow be enlarged via splits or bonuses going forward to boost market liquidity.

This Share Split happened in Apr 2017. It is going to happen now again in 2018. And even with a 2 for 1 bonus issue the float will still only be a small 200mil. So this share split exercise could yet happen again in the future. Of course, the coy must continue to maintain a strong set of forward revenue and profit momentum to make this happen again.

It is the strong fundamentals that keeps me in the game, and TA has little value in appraising AEM.

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137 likes 287 comments
Opportunist

30 % divy yield for you this year.....OMG.

Gracian

wow, sby125. u r around SGD4mil richer just by selling your bonus shares.

Gracian

3 bonus shares for per existing share.

layers

wa huat. nv ride the ship. now split got chance?

DreamBig

thanks for this very personal piece of sharing, this piece enhances fellow IN community investors/speculators/traders belief system that - elusive super multi baggers are out there and can be hunted... anything is possible

sby125

While the AEM 4Q earnings and bonus details are still pending ...

$Genting Sing(G13.SI) 4Q just out, PAT up 2X, revenue up 7%, div up 33% to 2ct. All super good news. With the 2X PAT and the 33% up in div, this will highly likely trigger a re-rating of Genting price. All the analysts will up the TP soon !

limchris8

The fruit of being so patient. Cheers!

Heracles

Actually think about it, I don’t think I could ever learn to hold for 22x... need to put me into coma first

sby125

Reply to @Invinciblesummer : Assets less Liabilities = Capital. Capital or Shareholder Fund are book numbers for financial risk appraisal. Market Cap is the value the market tagged on the coy based on its performance as reflected in its Price PE multiples. It is for valuation purpose.To ascertain if the coy is properly valued, you will need to critically appraise its earning capability and momentum. The balance sheet items you mentioned above or even the cash flow are more for risk assessment.

Jad PCB looks simple and certainly much lower in value, but after some years of brutal consolidation, it is now probably among one of the strongest that manage to survive and upgrade to higher levels and density drilling for the more demanding requirements, such as that for Apple Iphone.

CIMB and RHB suddenly initiated coverage for Jadason in mid 2016 and early 2017 respectively ..... they must have done so for some very good reasons ... certainly not a sunset low value simple pcb drilling biz .... right ?

I have not followed Juitian and Delong .... so I can't really comment ... I vaguely understand Juitian is also a turning around china based chemical coy .... so there could really be value yet to be fully unlocked ...

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BrennenPak

Great Job. Congratulations!
To hit a right stock, Chance = 1/200 (many stocks cannot make it)
To sit on a stock for multiple-bagger returns, Chance = 1/200 (Guess!)
To wait for 3 years, Chance = 1/5 (Guess!)
Over all chance = 1/200,000
Very rare find. Congratulations!

BrennenPak

Reply to @sby125 : The pinnacle feeling is superb, right?. Unfortunately, I do not have this stock. I have Venture. It has been a 3x bagger so far, which I thought was good. You were much better. Congratulations. ..Thumbs up!

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SallyH

Really admirable. So focused and so patient with this investment. No wonder so huat.

sby125

Reply to @SallyH : You are on board the train .... Big 发 to you too ! Let's Huat together !

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Recommended & Related Posts

+ Seems like they are breaking out the fund, allowing the other 11 partners to have their options to sell in the open market if they want to. These 11 much smaller partners need not report their transactions so nobody will know going forward.
+ Orion is now 4.3% (under 5%) but still under control by James and Loke, so not sure if Orion is obligated to announce its future buy/sell transactions to SGX ...?
+ Regardless if Orion needs to announce, it is unlikely that it will sell into the open market to Exit as this near 3mil shares will have a significant negative impact on the share price. James or Loke will not do it.
+ This exercise effectively put James as the Boss with a 7.75% holding. His future buy/sell transactions will need report to SGX. Why should he put himself into the Radar (>5%) ?
+ James, with a huge 5.2mil shares, cannot sell into the open market to have an orderly Exit without severe negative price pressure. Loke, with 1.33mil shares, also cannot sell into the open market without severely hurting the share price. Only Charles Cher, with 1.8% or 1.22mil shares could sell out his shares in the open market as he is now a Consultant and no longer a Director in the coy. Charles no longer need to report to SGX.
+ For James and Loke and Orion, particularly James, their best possible mode of exit seems only to engineer a M&A with a lucrative premium.
+ Of course, they could look for more "Long Only Investors" but such Private Institution Investors will not likely to put in their monies if they are aware that James and Loke are Exiting, particularly Loke who is supposedly the Key man driving the AEM business. However, such Institution Investors will invest if they are aware that potential synergistic M&A is on the table going forward.
+ Tech is a cyclical business. It is highly unlikely that James and Loke, particularly James, will want to weather through the next Tech down cycle as a private investor with his own money.
+ M&A seems to the me, still the End Game.

$AEM(AWX.SI)

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$AEM(AWX.SI) Aem crosses $7.00 the 2nd time since 26 Feb.

The 1st surge on 26 Feb was an emotionally charged euphoric rise immediately after the earning release which did not manage to hold due to massive nervous profit taking and short selling amid the record price.

The 2nd rise now today is the concertedly deliberate effort of the market to re-rate the coy after many days of cool minded digestion on the new improved fundamentals + the analyst upgrade + new $24mil institution investors support and backing + the potential massive Bonus booster power on future share price gains.

1. Cum Bonus~Ex-Bonus :-

To reiterate :- Aem price up ~2X within 3 weeks ex bonus in Apr 17 with only a 1.5X boost in market power. Now with a 4X power up from the 3 for 1 bonus on the back of an ultra bullish and minimum FY18 guidance, shooting through a mere 24% up to 8.19 is a very real near reality.

The bonus will likely ex in late May this year after the div ex else will attract div as in 2017 .. which everyone had a happy extra 50% windfall in the div payout.

By then the 1Q18 result would already have been out and our very investor friendly and engaging Chairman Loke may again issue a further more bullish update on the earlier minimum $42mil PBT. The analyst may again up the TP well beyond 8.19 ... probably to 9.09 (or 2.27 ex bonus)

Note, cimb still tag a 11% disc on the price which i think is unnecessary.

2. Potential M&A Target

Do not dismiss, and forget, that aem is a very real potential M&A target .. particularly for its direct major and much, much bigger US competitor, Cohu. The Ang Mohs like this straight forward way to buy up market share quickly to gain captive market control and then raise price.

In fact, I must admit that I am quite surprised that it has not happened yet which allows aem to grow >12X from mid 2016 to now. Perhaps Cohu was earlier not convinced that aem can indeed aggressively eat into its turf and sustain there.

Now that the threat has repeatedly proven credible and with aem entrenching its increasing shares in the Intel pie, and its mkt cap growing fast and getting more expensive by the days ( AEM mkt cap just up 2X in less than 2 months since 18 Jan ) ... Cohu may now be really hard pressed to seriously consider hitting the M&A trigger ...

The M&A exit option is also likely highly consistent with Orion Phoenix ultimate fund objective.

We might be able to see another windfall from the very likely attractive takeover premium ... sooner than expected ... A 30% premium on top of the upgraded TP9.00 to 12.00 is not unthinkable !!!

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$AEM(AWX.SI) Just saw CIMB updated the TP to 8.19 on 1 Mar .... my prediction comes true !!!

The share price ex-bonus up ~2X within 3 weeks in Apr 2017 with a 50% or 1.5X boost in power.

Now with the 3 bonuses becoming the real shares to boost market liquidity power by 4X on the back of an ultra solid FY18 guidance, this mere 23.7% up in price target will likely to be hit very soon.

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sby125
4.79 K
2018-02-26 09:11

$AEM(AWX.SI) I have a strong feeling that the analyst will re-rate aem again soon to include the Iris earning and synergies + the very favorable 3 for 1 bonus positive impact on market liquidity. The earlier 18% disc to peers may likely to be lifted ... Iris accounts for ~1% FY18 PBT. New TP likely $8.15 minimum ...

Maybank KE may also follow through its earlier Sep17 report to initiate a rate too ...
====================================

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AEM-- a very nice show again

I earlier on 26Feb expected the analyst to lift the 18% disc + add in the 1% PAT from Iris (460k/67m) ... =>> 6.62 / 0.82 + 0.07 = ~ 8.14 ....

Oh ..... my wish comes true .......

$AEM(AWX.SI)

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$AEM(AWX.SI) I have a strong feeling that the analyst will re-rate aem again soon to include the Iris earning and synergies + the very favorable 3 for 1 bonus positive impact on market liquidity. The earlier 18% disc to peers may likely to be lifted ... Iris accounts for ~1% FY18 PBT. New TP likely $8.15 minimum ...

Maybank KE may also follow through its earlier Sep17 report to initiate a rate too ...

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