My 4 Key Positions for 2018 and Their Expected Outlook
With the recent acquisition of Sabeco, gearing would shoot up from 30% to 120%
This looks similar to their strategy with the FNN buyout half a decade ago
The new entity will be restructured and cash flow is milked to pay off the debt in the years to come.
As 2017 earnings was weak due to the thai king mourning, 2018 should show explosive grown in
sales and revenues.. however with the much increased leverage the debt cost, this could drag down the reported earnings... 2018 earnings may end up flattish or inching up a bit.
I believe dividend payout would continue its uptrend.
over the longer run I expect 3% yield along with 5-10% earnings growth in the decade to come, if everything goes well... by 2020 we could see their vision of becoming an international beverage player come true.
4th telco will be coming into play sending price war to its climax, however the digital business is showing signs of a turnaround and management has guided for single digit ebita growths for the overall biz.
With a mix of positives and negatives I think reported earnings would remain flattish for 2018.
I expect their over decade long dividend track record to be maintained.. really nothing exciting... just here for the 5% yield
With the acquisition of LCR and integration with Uber, cost is likely to shoot up and be a drag in 2018 earnings... I expect earnings to remain weak but should bottom out in the 1st half of 2018.
After which I expect a conservative long term earnings growth of 3% mainly coming from the rail and bus segment.
A slow grower with a 5% yield, also nothing much to be excited about.
They currently have 43 stores in singapore with an ultimate target of 50 stores for the long term. I expect SS to reach 50 stores by end of 2019, after which they would need their china expansion to do well to continue seeing earnings growth... the china segment is challenging and could be riskier but very rewarding.
2017 was a disappointment to some investors as dividends was slightly reduced and the stock price remained stagnant, I saw this as an opportunity as I believe retaining more cash for expansion is more positive for its long term growth.
4% yield with a 5-10% earnings growth expected in the next 2 years, I am pretty excited with this position. Will take a deeper look at the company again after 2019 to see if they have matured or if they are able to expand beyond singapore to become an international player.