My 4 Key Positions for 2018 and Their Expected Outlook

With the recent acquisition of Sabeco, gearing would shoot up from 30% to 120%
This looks similar to their strategy with the FNN buyout half a decade ago

The new entity will be restructured and cash flow is milked to pay off the debt in the years to come.

As 2017 earnings was weak due to the thai king mourning, 2018 should show explosive grown in
sales and revenues.. however with the much increased leverage the debt cost, this could drag down the reported earnings... 2018 earnings may end up flattish or inching up a bit.
I believe dividend payout would continue its uptrend.

over the longer run I expect 3% yield along with 5-10% earnings growth in the decade to come, if everything goes well... by 2020 we could see their vision of becoming an international beverage player come true.


4th telco will be coming into play sending price war to its climax, however the digital business is showing signs of a turnaround and management has guided for single digit ebita growths for the overall biz.

With a mix of positives and negatives I think reported earnings would remain flattish for 2018.
I expect their over decade long dividend track record to be maintained.. really nothing exciting... just here for the 5% yield


With the acquisition of LCR and integration with Uber, cost is likely to shoot up and be a drag in 2018 earnings... I expect earnings to remain weak but should bottom out in the 1st half of 2018.
After which I expect a conservative long term earnings growth of 3% mainly coming from the rail and bus segment.

A slow grower with a 5% yield, also nothing much to be excited about.

$Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

They currently have 43 stores in singapore with an ultimate target of 50 stores for the long term. I expect SS to reach 50 stores by end of 2019, after which they would need their china expansion to do well to continue seeing earnings growth... the china segment is challenging and could be riskier but very rewarding.

2017 was a disappointment to some investors as dividends was slightly reduced and the stock price remained stagnant, I saw this as an opportunity as I believe retaining more cash for expansion is more positive for its long term growth.

4% yield with a 5-10% earnings growth expected in the next 2 years, I am pretty excited with this position. Will take a deeper look at the company again after 2019 to see if they have matured or if they are able to expand beyond singapore to become an international player.


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nomura report on $ThaiBev(Y92.SI)
A very detailed read on the new deals and whats ahead for 2018 to 2020
a must read for all those vested or wanting to vest


Reply to @RetiredYoungMan : Thanks.
How did you get this ?


STI like touching 3600 level soon omg omg omg


singtel seems forever stuck at 3.60 port lol, even bull market cannot move


no 2.50 no take profits ^_^


CDG dividends should be at least 10 cents
so at 4% yield level we should expect a TP of 2.50 at least


Reply to @RetiredOldMan : Thank you. This reminded me not to have itchy fingers

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ST SS TB I still feel the price havent run up yet


if CDG goes to 2.40 or 2.50 level I might sell 5,000 and keep 15,000 for long term cheers


CDG huat liao la, vested 20,000 shares ^_^
average cost near 2.00 level


Reply to @RetiredOldMan : If can’t go, at least collect divvy, provided divvy dun tio slash. Yield of 5+% is worth to buy considering the FA.

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added more $ThaiBev(Y92.SI) and $Sheng Siong(OV8.SI) today
70,000 and 60,000 total now
target 80,000 by year end if can


CDG earning depends highly on Oil Price. Now more than 60 ...

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Recommended & Related Posts

Target Price

TB down over 20% due to weak Q1 results
June world cup to boost alchohol sales greatly
Bond issue was great, 2/5/10 years cost under 3%, meaning deals were easily earnings accertive
Q2 earnings should rebound as one time acqusition costs gone, pre tax hike stocking over
Track record of earnings and dividends growth over last decade plus
Experience LBO in 2011/2012 swallowing FNN and growing it successfully
PE 20 is lower than industry average PE 25-30 for blue chip international players
Dividend yield of 3% is a plus
$Frasers Property(TQ5.SI) is non core asset and could easily be sold to pay down debt
Leading to big one time gains as cost is low from 5-6 years ago FNN spin off
Last to say, a big international consumer stock is pretty rare on SGX... people often complained that they have to go to US market to pick up big names like MacDonalds, Coke and Starbucks
But here you are with Chang Beer and Saigon Beer but very few are spending time to dig deeper into this company
A truly underappreciated and undervalued growth consumer stock that could be in many’s portfolio for long term
I expect a long term return of 8-13%
Earnings growth 5-10% plus 3% dividends

Vested 120,000 shares
Top position like how i bet big on ARA and GLP, i hope i am right again but i may be wrong
Do your own due dillgence

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$ThaiBev(Y92.SI) my last and only boat still at port and waiting to leave

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$Sheng Siong(OV8.SI) boat is gone
Vested 60,000 shares ^_^

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$ComfortDelGro(C52.SI) boat is gone
Vested 20,000 shares

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Transport giant ComfortDelGro Corp will have to contend with thinner margins, higher debts, more mergers and acquisitions, and new businesses if it wants to continue growing, according to its long-serving chairman Lim Jit Poh.

Speaking to The Straits Times as the group - the result of a merger between Comfort Group and DelGro Corp - turned 15 last week, Mr Lim said: "We are fully aware that the playing field has changed. Technological advances are going to change the make-up of the very vehicles we rely on as a mainstay of our business."

The eventual arrival of autonomous vehicles, for instance, could be the next disruptor. But more immediately, ride-hailing apps have already impacted the group's earnings substantially.

In 2004, the year after its merger, ComfortDelGro posted net earnings of $200.6 million on a turnover of $2.14 billion - a margin of 9.4 per cent. Last year, it posted earnings of $301.5 million on a turnover of $3.97 billion, or a margin of 7.6 per cent.

"The group would have to expand the list of mergers and acquisitions by considering projects with lower margins, so long as the investments are profit-accretive, offer a lower level of risk and are priced reasonably," Mr Lim said .

One recent - and now contentious - acquisition is Uber's Lion City Rentals, in which ComfortDelGro had sought to buy a 51 per cent stake. The deal pertains to around 12,500 cars.

Now that Uber has sold its South-east Asian business to rival Grab, will ComfortDelGro continue with the deal, which has to be concluded by the end of September?

"If we believe that private-hire is a new revenue stream for us, then we should continue," Mr Lim said.

He said acquiring Lion City Rentals' hired-out fleet will give ComfortDelGro instant access to the private-hire business.

The deal, however, is still pending approval from the Competition Commission of Singapore.

If it materialises, it will create a group with a combined fleet of 25,500 taxis and private-hire cars - or 45 per cent of an estimated total active fleet here.

The acquisition - ComfortDelGro's largest to date - will cost the group $642 million, with $295 million to be paid in cash, and the rest from borrowings.

Mr Lim said the group would, from here on, adopt "a less conservative capital structure and move into a net debt position in order to fund growth".

Recent moves which reflect ComfortDelGro's appetite for lower-margin investments include its $15 million acquisition of 217 taxi licences and vehicles from Shenyang Tian Wen Taxi Co, which will grow the group's fleet in the capital of China's Liaoning province by close to one-fifth to 1,503 taxis.

It also acquired British coach operator New Adventure Travel - which runs 117 buses from South Wales - for $24.6 million.

Mr Lim would not say what the margins for these businesses were.

The chairman - who has been providing guidance to the board since ComfortDelGro was formed in March 29, 2003 - said the group is also "exploring strategic alliances with start-ups to collaboratively work on commercial application of emerging technologies".

Again, he would not elaborate.

To prepare the group for the fast-evolving business landscape, Mr Lim has shored up the board with new expertise. ComfortDelGro brought in a retired auditor, as well as a person "in the forefront of the digital world".

Subsidiary SBS Transit roped in an accountant (it never had one before) and a lawyer. At Vicom, a technical testing specialist and "a person well versed in the area of service industry" joined the board.

"We never had such personalities previously," Mr Lim said, adding that he was also looking for someone with expertise in artificial intelligence. But the chairman would not reveal names.

At the group's 10th anniversary five years ago, Mr Lim said ComfortDelGro would garner 70 per cent of its revenue from overseas in the next five to seven years.

Since then, markets such as Britain, Australia and China have been accounting for no more than 50 per cent of group revenue.

Has the group, once admired for its overseas forays, plateaued?

Mr Lim said there were several reasons for the outcome.

First, he said, foreign exchange rates have been working against the group, with currencies in many of the markets where it operates weakening against the Singapore dollar.

"Some of the markets we are in have also undergone regulatory changes, and that has affected some of our businesses. Our local units have also been growing, so the balance has tilted," he added, referring to the growing rail and bus networks in Singapore.

But he said the group should be able to reach the 50 per cent mark soon.

Mr Lim, a former senior civil servant, wrapped up the interview with an observation about commuters in Singapore.

"Singaporeans have high expectations. This is not a bad thing. Certainly, it spurs everyone to do better," he said.

"But expectations need to be balanced with the cost of delivery, be they bus or rail services."

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