My 4 Key Positions for 2018 and Their Expected Outlook
$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)

With the recent acquisition of Sabeco, gearing would shoot up from 30% to 120%
This looks similar to their strategy with the FNN buyout half a decade ago

The new entity will be restructured and cash flow is milked to pay off the debt in the years to come.

As 2017 earnings was weak due to the thai king mourning, 2018 should show explosive grown in
sales and revenues.. however with the much increased leverage the debt cost, this could drag down the reported earnings... 2018 earnings may end up flattish or inching up a bit.
I believe dividend payout would continue its uptrend.

over the longer run I expect 3% yield along with 5-10% earnings growth in the decade to come, if everything goes well... by 2020 we could see their vision of becoming an international beverage player come true.

$SingTel(Z74.SI)

4th telco will be coming into play sending price war to its climax, however the digital business is showing signs of a turnaround and management has guided for single digit ebita growths for the overall biz.

With a mix of positives and negatives I think reported earnings would remain flattish for 2018.
I expect their over decade long dividend track record to be maintained.. really nothing exciting... just here for the 5% yield
https://www.singtel.com/about-Us/investor-...

$ComfortDelGro(C52.SI)

With the acquisition of LCR and integration with Uber, cost is likely to shoot up and be a drag in 2018 earnings... I expect earnings to remain weak but should bottom out in the 1st half of 2018.
After which I expect a conservative long term earnings growth of 3% mainly coming from the rail and bus segment.

A slow grower with a 5% yield, also nothing much to be excited about.

$Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

They currently have 43 stores in singapore with an ultimate target of 50 stores for the long term. I expect SS to reach 50 stores by end of 2019, after which they would need their china expansion to do well to continue seeing earnings growth... the china segment is challenging and could be riskier but very rewarding.

2017 was a disappointment to some investors as dividends was slightly reduced and the stock price remained stagnant, I saw this as an opportunity as I believe retaining more cash for expansion is more positive for its long term growth.

4% yield with a 5-10% earnings growth expected in the next 2 years, I am pretty excited with this position. Will take a deeper look at the company again after 2019 to see if they have matured or if they are able to expand beyond singapore to become an international player.

Cheers

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39 likes 8 comments
RetiredOldMan

added more $ThaiBev(Y92.SI) and $Sheng Siong(OV8.SI) today
70,000 and 60,000 total now
target 80,000 by year end if can

corycat

CDG earning depends highly on Oil Price. Now more than 60 ...

Zzz444

Vested in Singtel and CDG recently comprising close to 30 pct of portfolio....watching Thaibev.

Singtel - wont lose sleep over it.. in for dividend

CDG - Keeping close eye on earnings and dividends sustainability. Dividend sustainability is quite critical to me on CDG. Quietly confident but difficult to predict when earnings bottom out and if to add more to average down should price action deteriorate.

Thaibev - wait till sentiments over recent acquisition settle down

Sheng Siong- not dived into it yet. I like the staple biz but wonder if online grocery shopping will take over at some point. It has already happened in China..,

nareshg

I am positive on Singtel, negative on the other three!

nareshg

Reply to @RetiredOldMan : I think TB has paid a huge premium for acquiring SABCo and it will take at least a year or two before positive effects are seen :)
@SS- Growth rate is decelerating

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motome

Good luck. i too am vested in all 4 :)

gagnant76

Thanks for your insights


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hand too itchy, couldnt resist buying more in this bull market
added 10,000 $ThaiBev(Y92.SI) today, bringing my total shares to 60,000 and locking it as my top position for sure cheers

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Expiry:
Target Price
$1.0
(+4.71%)
NOW:

SABECO 25%+ Stake deal to push TB above 1.00 level

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