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Amazon Prime in Singapore: A Game Changer?

This column is written by @j_chou from InvestingNote.com.

@J_chou has an interest in global macro trends, financial markets and equity research and enjoys applying a combination of the three in his investments. His eventual investing goal is to manage a risk parity portfolio and achieve true financial freedom.

-@J_Chou is vested in $BABA

Singapore and Southeast Asia’s growing E-commerce industry

According to a 2015 report done by Google and Temasek Holdings South-east Asia’s Internet economy is expected to surge to US$200 billion by 2025, driven by a growing middle class and greater accessibility to the Internet. For Singapore, the e-commerce market is projected to grow at 32% CAGR to be worth US$5.4billion in 2025. The Prime Now launch reaffirmed the importance of South-east Asia for digital commerce, with Singapore chosen as a testbed likely due to its tech-savvy, affluent citizens and accessibility to the rest of the region.

Amazon Prime

The launch of Prime in Singapore, Amazon’s express delivery services, signals Amazon’s entry into the Southeast Asian market. Prime will allow Singaporeans to place orders on groceries and retail items and have them delivered as fast as within 2 hours of confirming an order.

There are several delivery options given: For orders below 40 dollars, users pay a S$5.99 delivery fee; orders above S$40 are delivered free in a two-hour delivery window. For those wanting to get their goods within an hour, they pay up to S$9.99 per order.

The reason why Amazon is able to deliver so quickly is due to their superior automation and supply chain management. Using a series of complex algorithms and data the company is able to enhance productivity in middle and last mile logistics. The level of automation that is employed by Amazon is simply impressive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtBa9yVZBJM.

Unfortunately, as the Singapore market is still in its infancy the warehouse at Jurong East are mostly dependent on humans. Nevertheless, there are still some form of technologies used by the Singapore facility such as artificial intelligence and concepts such as random stow systems. This involves using spatial design and algorithms to locate items across the warehouse based on order frequency. More details of the Singapore warehouse operations could be found at http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singap....



Amazon is also employing third-party logistic providers such as Ninja Van to provide last mile delivery instead of utilizing its own as it seeks to establish market presence first before importing its extensive network of logistic services.

Besides their advantage in technology, being the largest online retailer in the world gives Amazon the ability and the economies of scale to offer premium brands at a discount that local retailers are unable to compete with.

Amazon’s impact on SGX stocks

There is a good reason why many herald Amazon as “the most disruptive force in retail and technology”, and its ability to force retail titans such as Walmart and Best Buy to adapt is a stark reminder of its influence. Many are also predicting the death of retail in the US: Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that US retail floorspace is down 10 per cent since 2010, while department store sales are down 18 per cent. In 2017, the retail industry has lost an average of 9,000 jobs per month, despite the US labour market reporting positive growth.



US Retail Statistics: Online Retail vs. Department Stores

It is indeed hard to imagine a world where traditional retail will be able to compete with the low cost and convenience provided by online retail in the future, assuming that proper infrastructure is in place. Hence, it is my view that Amazon’s entry heralds the decline for traditional retail stocks, such as $DairyFarm USD(D01.SI), $Sheng Siong(OV8.SI). So any optimistic outlook of future growth for retail stocks should be treated with caution, especially if the company has not given any signals that they are looking to adapt to the online platform.

Retail REITs such as $BHG Retail Reit(BMGU.SI), $CapitaMall Trust(C38U.SI), $Frasers Cpt Tr(J69U.SI) , $Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI) and $Suntec Reit(T82U.SI) may also be hit. URA figures show that the retail vacancy was at a relatively high 7.7 per cent at the end of the first quarter of 2017, despite softening rentals. As in the case in other mature economies such as the US, several high-profile brick-and-mortar players have closed shop in recent years, including department stores John Little and Marks & Spencer, lifestyle and furnishing stores IWannagohome and FrancFranc as well as fashion outlets Parco and Raoul. As e-commerce increases its market share, retail vacancies could climb even as rentals continue falling.

I have noticed that some IN members are doubtful of the impact that Amazon will have on the local retail scene, with a handful already expecting Amazon to fail to consistently deliver on its promise of 2-hour deliveries. Some also opined that online shopping cannot deliver the same kind of quality assurance as offline shopping.

I would thus like to share my personal experience: I was also quite averse to online shopping and have never done so before I went to study abroad in the UK this year. In the UK where shopping online is quite prevalent, I was encouraged by my British friends, who mostly use online delivery to shop, to make use of the service for my grocery shopping. This was despite the fact that there were supermarkets within walking distance from our campus. I was decidedly blown away by how cheap and fast the service was. The delivery fee came to only 2 pounds (which was cheaper than travelling by bus to the supermarket) and I never had any issues with food quality. I never did my grocery shopping in supermarkets since, only visiting for the occasional one-off perishable goods. I have also used Amazon Prime for online shopping. If you purchase an item stocked in the local warehouse the order can be processed really quickly. Another example of how insanely efficient Prime service is, was when I ordered a cake from a bakery located in London and it was able to deliver it to me 10 hours later at a location that was 2.5 hours away by train! I have no doubt that once Amazon has adapted to the local market it will be able to consistently deliver on its 2-hour delivery promise.

Hence, my contention is that due to the poor logistics infrastructure here, Singaporeans have not had the comprehensive experience of shopping online as compared to our overseas counterparts from USA and China as of yet. But once the likes of Amazon and Lazada have fully integrated into the Singapore markets the negative impact of its technology prowess on traditional retail will be swift.

The Singapore logistics industry will also likely be affected if Amazon was to build a strong customer base in Southeast Asia. Notably $SingPost(S08.SI) who is working closely with Alibaba. Amazon has a “unhealthy” habit of eventually internalizing all phases of its supply chain management, with rumours that the company is aiming to replace the likes of DHL, UPS or FedEx to create a global supply chain. Hence current third-party logistic providers such as Ninja Van may find themselves becoming obsolete in the long run. Leveraging logistic technology has always been Amazon’s expertise, thus unless the logistics companies can keep pace with the technological innovation that Amazon is likely to deploy, Amazon may unseat existing freight services within the next decade.

Amazon vs. Alibaba

I thought it will be interesting to do a comparison of the two biggest e-commerce giants given that the competitive dynamics between the two will have a material impact on the direction of Southeast Asia’s e-commerce market and its economy.

Though the two companies are often seen as comparable, they operate on very different business models.

Alibaba's core business model is more B2B and resembles that of eBay. Alibaba acts as a middleman and facilitates the sale of goods between the two parties through its extensive network of websites. The largest site, Taobao, operates as a fee-free C2C marketplace where neither sellers nor buyers are assessed a fee for completing transactions. Hence, Alibaba simply facilitates trade and does not interfere in any part of the transaction. Alibaba’s services are thus popular for small to medium businesses as it gives them the ability to sell their goods to anyone on the globe for a very low cost.

Amazon are more customer-centric and place more focus on a B2C model, selling goods directly to consumers. Amazon purchase the goods directly from producers and sells them on their platform with the inventory being kept in the company's large network of warehouses. This allows Amazon to compress cost and their turnover high. In addition to direct sales, Amazon also provides a platform for other retailers to sell products to buyers. Products sold through Amazon's partner retailers are often less common items or those with a higher purchase price, allowing Amazon to avoid holding slow-moving inventory that could dilute profit. But, as recent acquisitions such as the purchase of Whole Foods has shown Amazon’s eventual aim is to internalize all services to maximize efficiency of its supply chain management. Currently, to secure market dominance Amazon’s is aggressively pushing for top-line growth with an apparent disregard for their bottom-line.

At first glance, you can see that Alibaba’s model is more favorable for businesses but Amazon’s model is more favorable for consumers. I personally prefer Alibaba’s model as I believe that small and medium enterprises are the backbone of any economy, and a model that is favorable for businesses will be beneficial for both producers and consumers in the long run. Small retailers simply cannot compete with Amazon given the growing dependency on online retail and the fact that Amazon can always sell at a lower price given its economies of scale.
Their approach to establishing presence in Southeast Asia is also different. The regional market is very fragmented, but with Amazon’s entry consolidation is expected to come soon.

Alibaba has already enjoyed the first mover advantage by focusing on inorganic acquisitions: investing an 83% stake in Lazada (who also owns RedMart), Southeast Asia’s largest ecommerce platform and a majority shareholding in Singpost, Singapore’s premier logistics provider. The fact that both Lazada and Singpost are based here has already given Alibaba presence in the region, which Amazon may find hard to overcome. However, when it comes to consumer trust I may be underestimating the effect of Amazon’s branding, given Singapore consumers preference for US companies over their Chinese counterparts and its existing base of loyal customers. But given that both companies have already established a certain level of consumer trust, in my opinion the advantage will eventually come down to cost. The company that is able to present itself as the cheaper option for consumers will establish market dominance. This will be determined by how quickly both companies will be able to develop new disruptive technology, such as in the field of artificial intelligence and drone delivery, which could significantly reduce cost and improve delivery time. Ultimately consumers will stand to benefit the most from the price reductions as both companies seek to prioritise growth over profits, and I can foresee this scenario being played out for the next few years.

Uber vs. Grab vs. Taxis

The battle amongst Uber, Grab and taxis shows how disruptive technology can be. Initially many found the idea of ride sharing unfathomable, but within 2 years of its introduction Uber and Grab has already crippled the taxi industry. Uber and Grab are able to keep pricing competitive due to its geolocation and data technology, which the traditional taxi industry are unable to compete with. Hence, the taxi industry is forced to adapt and innovate or risk being forgotten. Though some may view the artificial pricing as temporary, it must be noted that these companies are still constantly innovating in the meantime to drive down cost and improve margins. For Uber and Grab, the race is on to see which company is able to develop a system of self-driving cars first, as this will eliminate their biggest expense (the drivers) and hence enjoy dominance in pricing.

I see many parallels in the online vs traditional retail battle. There may be resistance initially, but once the convenience of online shopping catches on, especially in Singapore where technology adoption rate is high, the effect will be felt quickly. Amazon and Alibaba will compete to have more promotions and artificially drive down pricing to make online delivery attractive. The sheer size of the companies will allow them to do so for many years. Once market share has been established, the advancement in technology by then will allow prices to remain equally low as operational efficiency and margin improves. Hence, as seen in the case of Walmart in the US, traditional retail will be forced to move to the online platform or risk losing its customer base to existent online counterparts.

Conclusion

It will be folly to underestimate the impact of ecommerce on traditional retail. The online experience is vastly superior to traditional shopping and the growing dominance of online retail over brick and mortar in countries with established ecommerce presence is proof of that. At the end of the day, online retail will always be the better alternative: providing the same quality of goods at a lower cost and greater convenience than traditional retail could never achieve. Even if one may argue that online shopping will never replace the tangible experience of going to a physical shop and inspecting the goods, what is stopping consumers from simply visiting and then making their purchase online if it is cheaper? Hence, anyone who views traditional retail companies as stable and resilient based on the past should look to the taxi industry as a prime example of why nostalgia and tradition simply will not last. In the age of technology, companies must innovate or die.

Disclaimer:
All research reports are of the analysts’ personal opinions and do not in any way reflect InvestingNote’s official opinion. InvestingNote does not issue a buy or sell recommendation on any security, and any research paper published by The Signal Blog is purely for informative purposes. This research is based on current public information, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual InvestingNote users. InvestingNote users should consider whether the information in this research is reliable, and suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the investment income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments.

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19 people like this.
JOCELYN87 :

thanks for sharing .

evelow :

thanks for sharing your insight. i have no questions. 1) when you went to the UK mart, did you observe the customers' profiles? If so, can share?

2) You went once for perishable food. Is this for self-cooking? Do students there cook often?

hk1super :

Reply to @J_Chou : in some areas Tesco closes at 4pm and only at 7pm on crtain weekdays

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J_Chou :

Hi @soonhongtan, thanks for your insight! Very educational for me from the data collection POV. I totally agree with your points and I don't think it contradicts with mine. Indeed I understand the difference situations between Singapore and the likes of US and China, but as in per my own experience in the UK even cities like London where every type of brick and mortar is a stone's throw away delivery is still very popular. I would hazard a guess that it is due to the increasingly fast paced lifestyle in the cities that ppl only have time on their mobiles to purchase. In fact statistics have shown shopping from mobile has outpaced desktop spending. I agree with the current issues Amazon and the others are facing, as I noted the poor logistics infrastructure here in Singapore makes it difficult but as you have mentioned it will only get better with time. If you have noticed competitors like RedMart and HonestBee have gradually been decreasing their delivery cost since their inception. Regardless as you have also noted it is all about market dominance now so loss-making is not an issue for Amazon and BABA, especially since the Singapore market is so small. Despite Amazon's market cap they are still in a high growth transitional period. Hence, just like Uber's model they can simply afford to be profitable in the US to compensate for their aggressive growth strategy in SEA. And their size means that they can do so for a very long time. Also the beautiful thing about online spending is that as it gets more popular it will only get cheaper and faster. A single delivery trip will be able to fulfill multiple orders. For instance, in my university majority of students order groceries online. So Tesco always makes just one trip down to my university to deliver to 10 different households, this spreads the delivery cost amongst ten orders and the reason why my delivery only costs 2 pounds. I can foresee the same happening in Singapore in the future, as demand becomes more predictable. Also, looking at the taxi industry (I rmbr thinking to myself when I first heard of Uber I thought it was never going to work in the mainstream) I have learnt not to underestimate the power and speed of technological prowess of such companies. We might see novel concepts like drone delivery coming to fruition within the next 2-3 years and then all concerns with traditional last mile delivery will be forgotten.

jeremyowtaip :

Reply to @J_Chou : Technological advancements do offer high potential for better speed, productivity and convenience with lower cost. We are reminded of many old technologies that got replaced by newer ones.

Camera films are mostly replaced by digital photography. The internet has replaced older methods of gathering and spreading information through printed forms. Mobile phones have replaced pagers and coin operated telephones as the mode of communication. Then comes internet messaging, internet voice call and video call apps which have revolutionised the way people communicate as it is cheaper, easier and better to communicate in such newer methods than making long distance overseas calls traditionally through phones. Online ecommerce and online shopping have also affected businesses of distributors and retailers to a certain extent as consumers can buy direct from some manufacturers and producers through internet shopping and have the goods delivered to their doorstep which may even be cheaper than buying from distributors and retailers which may mark up selling prices. And now, the new wave of digital currencies is happening in the US. Will this new method of using digital currency catch on worldwide to reach a very large scale eventually and if it should, how will this new method of making payment through digital currencies impact the various existing stakeholders in the way they adapt?

I agree with Soonhongtan that it will not be an easy task for Amazon if their aim is to disrupt the local retailers here including the supermarkets and change lifestyle shopping habits. It may incur them huge costs for a long run before they see any results (assuming if they can do it successfully in the end). The local supermarkets will not sit by and do nothing if they notice their businesses affected by such disruptive forces.

However, I also agree with J_Chou that it depends on Amazon's adaptation and execution strength whether they are able to cause such disruptions. The technology platform of ecommerce and online shopping have already been accepted and used currently. As mentioned by Soonhongtan and J_Chou, Amazon would need to adapt to our transport system in Singapore and reduce the cost of transport and deliveries while ensuring the items can arrive at the customer's destination within 2 hours cheaply and all items fresh upon arrival. How they can do so on a sustainable basis will be their challenge and for them to think hard and work hard at it?

But, my thinking is that if Amazon can really do it consistently cheaper, more convenient, simple enough to input orders and make payments online, and fast enough (within 2 hours delivery time) while ensuring the items reach their consumers fresh and good, it will be a matter of time that more and more people will be drawn to using their services which include grocery shopping as well.

To what extent Amazon will be able to disrupt the other retailers, we shall see. One thing I know is that Amazon is a much larger business than any of our local supermarkets and has deep pockets to keep trying even if they made any mistakes along the way.

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soonhongtan :

First of all, I agree with most of the findings but selling groceries is different from selling standard things like books and boardgames among others. It is hard to compare Sg to places like China or USA which is huge. Because of malls and convenient stores are not found near to residential areas for USA and potential China, such shopping habits can be understandable. I remembered studying in US for a period and staying at the suburbs, buying anything (including food) means the need to travel 6 to 8 miles just to have a meal. As such, we often resort to order food (not online, but through the phone) and the delivery will be within an hour (reasonably nearby places to the restaurant only).
So in order for Amazon to compete. the logistic part has to be optimised. First, in order to sell so many things and deliver them to the people, automation is going to be required. If anyone going to order small amount ($20 or less), the hustle of finding the items quickly and sorted out into a package and to find a driver and to have it delivered on time (within an hour or two hours) while selling them at cut throat price (plus giving temporary discount to disrupt retails). Do not forget that SG has ERP, so if you stay in the town area, how many ERP gantries are you going to pass (delivery will not be $2 or 2 pounds if you will). I remembered a friend a florist and delivery charges for her goods used to be $10 per trip regardless, until ERP is introduced - $15/trip is the end result. Vehicles are expensive, ERPs, high petrol costs...etc. Even if a grab cab trip costs you only $6 for a short journey, ERP is excluded.
So unless I can see more than 5 distribution centres in sg (which will eventually be the case for Amazon), and more AUTOMATED (similar to those automated medicine dispenser you see in some medical centres or hospital - yes, you entered what you need in the computer (done by the user by the way) and everything is going to be packed nicely in a bag for pickup (what about eggs and fish which needs a freezer??).
Then again, even with a reduction of downtime, there is still the transport issue to tackle (though improved by number of distribution centres (eventually)).
As I see it, Amazon wants to beat Alibaba in this e-commerce business and hence, quickly established a foothold here. Phase I will be focussing on marketing and life-style changing...so temporary you are not going to see sudden increase of centres everywhere. Amazon is still learning to cope...need data to analyse (experts). So data collection needs at least 2 to 3 months (raw data - collected over time), and then you have the experts to analyse and provide suggestions and insights based on number crunching. Clearly feasibility studies have not been carried out as you can see the number of cropped up Amazon is facing. However, Amazon expected that and Phase I is not about excellent service...it is about disruption to retails, changing people lifestyle and get a presence quickly.
Phase 2? Expansion. More distribution centres and streamlined operations, while keeping costs low.
Phase 3? Automation. Automation can be achieved only if operations are already predictable (data, data and more data) and an equilibrium has been achieved.
So all these will not be cheap and it will be very safe to assume this period, all the way to phase 3 (if phase 3 really possible LOL) will be bleeding from phase to phase. Yes retails will be disrupted but my guess is "free delivery in 2h" may have to go eventually - more like a fixed charges of couple of dollars to cut costs for Amazon.
Lastly, not to contradict what was already mentioned on top or to discredit what the author had mentioned, i merely wanted to provide an alternate view to the situation and for all you know, I may be wrong. Cheers, guys !

sUp3rb0s :

Reply to @soonhongtan : I think people tend to overestimate the effects in the short term, and underestimate in the long term haha.

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cy888 :

Good analysis. However, given the high COE, fuel and labor costs in Singapore, I am wondering how Amazon Go can commit 2-hour delivery at profit? They must have done their P&L analysis.... I guess their initiative is purely for market share purpose....

J_Chou :

Reply to @cy888 : Yes given how small the Singapore market is relative to Amazon's overall sales I think generating profit here is not much of a concern. Aggressive growth at all cost should be their focus for the next few years. Forgot to mention in the article but Amazon's entry into India is a good case study of their business strategy in new markets!

richardlokevo :

Amazing sharing, worth reading

wellhandy :

Good one Jay chou.

As early as 2011, I noticed many of the more 'suburban' malls in capital cities in the states are empty as can be.

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Angewandte

Recently, I got into some trouble with some organization as 'some idiots' at my workplace started spreading rumours that I am engaged in some form of illegal activities to fund my lifestyle. Though I don't know who was it, I was sure it was from my workplace.

I am only in my late twenty and just started working not long ago after graduating from university. I am drawing a salary of 4k ++. I travel once per quarter and eat at random fancy restaurant once a week. My average spending a month (excluding travelling) is around 3k ++ (car instalment, food, outing and allowance for parent).

What many of my colleagues don't know was that I started investing since my polytechnic days (about 8 years ago). I gathered a huge pool of warchest back in 2010 during world cup and have started investing for dividend ever since. Throughout my journey, I made 2 lucky multi-bagger (ShengSiong and MM2). The multi-bagger caused my warchest to increase greatly.

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After the trouble was cleared, many 'lao jiao' in my company started advising me to save for rainy and stuff. They are the type who are planning to work, save and wait for retirement which might never come. I just nodded my head and tell them yes yes yes.

I don't want a stable lifestyle, I want an enriching lifestyle. My advice to people is always to take mini-retirement by going on a holiday whenever possible. Don't be afraid of judgement and never stop learning.

If you are in your early twenty and you are poor, It is normal.

If you are in your early thrity and you always looking forward to payday, You have to work harder.

If you are in your early fourty and you fear of losing your job, You have to reflect on your life.

Don't be jealous of other people lifestyle, instead work on your own lifestyle.

Cheers

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LevelUp

$DairyFarm USD(D01.SI)

Inspired by bro @wellhandy to do some sharing ....

First time sharing ... TA experts 请多多指教

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