Rise Of REITs
1H19 is pure madness for REITs. I am one of those that missed the boat. Though I am still holding counters such as $ESR-REIT(J91U.SI), $Frasers L&I Tr(BUOU.SI), $AIMSAMP Cap Reit(O5RU.SI), $First Reit(AW9U.SI) and $Mapletree Ind Tr(ME8U.SI). Wish I have not exited on $Ascendas Reit(A17U.SI), $Keppel DC Reit(AJBU.SI), and $CapitaR China Tr(AU8U.SI). Well, life goes on.
They're flying like no tomorrow... A quick look shows my favorites have on average gone over 24% between 02 Jan and 05 July this year.
TA wise, most done their cycles. I see little upside in the short term. Only $ParkwayLife Reit(C2PU.SI), I saw a Bull Flag pointing at 3.3 next. That's another 10%. Imagine what will be the yield like? Crazy is the only word I have.
I downloaded a list of 747 counters in SG. Noted some data field are empty. And I am unsure how they calculated the yield e.g. TTM or based on 2018 exclude special etc. Yield for counters less than 12 months likely included only actual dividend to date.
Started playing with the data available. Filtered off counters less than 300m in Market Cap, less than 3% Yield, with negative Net Profit/ROE, and D/E more than 200%. With few exceptions here and there.
Searching for REITs over 6% yield but found very few options. Of the SGD counters, I have First and ESR. Not really keen to add any of these at current price level.
Next for REITs with 4-6% yield, I noticed my favorites are quickly going down the list. Ascendas at 4.32, $Mapletree Log T(M44U.SI) at 4.36, and Mapletree Ind 4.41. My choices are very limited again. Eyeing on Frasers L&T and may be $Frasers Com Tr(ND8U.SI).
Looking further down to REITs below 4%. I can see my hope fading away... Keppel DC, $CapitaMall Trust(C38U.SI), $Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI), $Frasers Cpt Tr(J69U.SI), and ParkwayLife. Btw, I think $Sasseur Reit(CRPU.SI) will move up the list when full year dividend is available.
It is not very encouraging when I am trying to build my portfolio around solid high yield counters.
Many questions in my head. Should I:
- Start to accumulate anyway?
- Wait for the long waited mega crash?
- Buy other solid Blues with similar yield while continue to wait?
- Trade for now while waiting for solid REITs to return?
- Sit back relax eat popcorn watch show first?
The biggest challenge and most interesting part of investment to me is - there is no one approach that fits all. I will have to continue explore and figure it out. What works best for my situation.
A long story on what's in my head trying to figure things out for myself. A mediocre as I am, my investment journey continues and as my snail-slow learning.
Do share your wisdoms generously, how you do your thinking?
Readers and contributors to this post, wish you a very Huat 2H19. Cheers.