1.68 K

Is there a way to see how bullish or bearish that our trading community is regarding specific shares? Am especially interested to know sentiment about $SPH(T39.SI) for research purposes. What I wish to see is how many people believe that SPH will rise, and how many believe it will fall. Plus how much they think it will rise/fall. This will be useful as a contrarian indicator. It will be great if we can add sentiment data to the charts too.

IG markets has a client sentiment tab but it may not be representative of the community as a whole. - https://www.ig.com/sg/ig-shares/singapore-...

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Waiting for support at $2.96 or resistance at $3 to break with a sudden spike of volume. From the intraday price action, both bulls and bears are evenly matched. Might be a boring week for this counter in terms of price movement.


Reply to @InvestingNote : Yes, the technology is important.

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Maybe can do one here too. Great suggestion.


Yes, sentiment indicators will be good. I sometimes look at the Greed and Fear index for US markets - a good guide.

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The 3 Bears with the lowest market capitalisation of the $STI(^STI.IN):

1) $HPH Trust USD(NS8U.SI)
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Will they survive the next quarterly review in June, or will they be voted off the island by investors? Stay tuned.

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Attention all bears: Due to heavily oversold weekly RSI and the formation of a bottoming pattern, a dead cat bounce is imminent. I am closing off my CFD short to wait for a better price to reenter. As the risk-benefit ratio is unfavorable [not sure how high or low the bounce will go], I will not advise entering into a trade to ride the dead cat. Meanwhile for the bulls, enjoy the run while you can, before it plunges again.

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Institutional & Retail Weekly Fund Flow Tracker (Week of 17 July) - Top 5 Institutional/Retail Net Buy/Sell Stocks

$SPH(T39.SI), $M1(B2F.SI), $SingTel(Z74.SI), $DBS(D05.SI), $Venture(V03.SI), $SGX(S68.SI), $UOB(U11.SI), $DBS(D05.SI)

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Reasons to short sell using CFD:
1) SPH's net earnings reached a high of $497,874 in FY2010 and has been declining until $205,291 for the past 12 months. This trend won't be reversing unless management changes their strategy.
2) SPH is paying more dividends than its earnings, which is definitely not sustainable. A lot of people who blindly believe in the buy-and-hold dividend stock brainwashing strategy are still holding on because of the dividends. They are likely to start selling when the dividend goes down from 5% to 3.3% (a more reasonable amount based on the most recent earnings).
3) SPH is trying to get into the business of REITs and property development in order to survive. REITs are typically valued around 1x book value (except for medical REITs in first world countries), and developers are discounted somewhere around 0.7x book value. SPH is valued at 1.45x book value. I will roughly value SPH at 0.9x book value (which, by the way, is decreasing since FY2014).
4) SPH is in danger of losing its (currently 1.65%) weight in the STI (refer to comment relating to SPH below) if its price continues falling. Losing its place means that many ETF fund managers will have to sell it. The margins for some CFD retail investors will be doubled by their providers so they may be forced to sell too.
5) Since mid July 2017, SPH started falling fast and accelerating. Technicals are extremely bearish. [Refer to Noble Group for how much shares can still fall even if they are 'oversold'.]
6) As of 21 July 2017, there is too much noise in the stock forum by investors saying that SPH is cheap and they have got to load up more of it. These people have been trapped and are desperately hoping to influence other people to buy SPH so that the stock price will go up so that they can sell their holdings at a smaller loss. We can take a contrarian view and bet against these poor souls.

Reasons to hold back:
1) A dead cat bounce may bring SPH to around $3.15
2) SPH's management may change their strategy to find a more viable business model
3) Someone may wish to buyout SPH at a premium

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