Impact of tech war on tech industries so far
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In January due to lead/lag, the final quarter of 2017 and the full year results for 2017 would be great, and would be announced only around Feb/Mar period. So many investors rushed in and the tech companies capitalized on the timing to issue bonus and whatever sweets that the investors love while insiders sell.

From the chart of AEM, Hi-P, Venture, etc you can see huge push up were done in the 1Q timeframe then, big volumes were sold starting with 2Q and now into July/August. (This distribution was by people in the know, insiders and BB).
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I mentioned Tech stocks will see clearer impact in 2Q/3Q reportings especially if you follow the semiconductor productions and sales (See my write-up on the semiconductor cycle- starting from orders/chip productions/shipment to assemblers/and sales in Oct for Christmas session).

1Q reporting (in April/May) showed little impact as orders were still flowing in but by the end of the first quarter, tech companies suddenly saw smaller requirements for chips due to 2017 high production and inventories.

2Q/3Q will show the true colors of the impact and further aggravated by five factors:
1. Last year high inventories and increasing slower sales of mobile phones in 2nd half of 2017 and carried over to this year
2. The focus of Chinese mobile phone companies on upgrading to match Samsung and lowering prices (same or better features but at lower price) knocking the competitiveness out of Apple and Samsung.
3. The sudden ban on ZTE resulted in a shakeup of the electronic supply chain for a couple of weeks/months
4. The shakeup makes Chinese importers (the targets of US) realize that they have to be self reliant, resulting in the immediate pumping of not billions but hundreds of billions of USD into making their own chips. This aggravates the sales of Intel, Macron, etc.
5. The tech war is not helping. The tariff helps to raise prices, reduces productions, cuts sales to the world largest electronic consuming market from the US Electronic MNCs, and helps push China companies to make their own chips.This is BAD news as China when it becomes world number 1, will cut off American electronic companies from its market and companies in the supply chain for these American companies

If you observe my estimations for Venture, Hi-P, Sunningdale, AEM, etc you will see me a bear with lowered prices. This is due to prices trending down. I dun control the market nor can I influence the market, but the trend shows I was right.

What is going to happen in the next few months of 2018? Avoid Tech Stocks

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lye_kiatchua

Won't a trade war benefits company like Venture operates in Malaysia n spore ? Some orders might be rerouted from China ?

Hayashi8

I mentioned a few tech companies, yesterday Aem broke down, now doing a deadcat rebound.
Today Hi-P in line for a slump
Tomorrow? Sunningdale? or others like Valuetronic, Fu Yu etc?
A revaluation of tech stocks is taking place around the world.

Hayashi8

Samsung in the lead but yoy down 10.4%
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Samsung remained the market leader with 20.9 percent market share after shipping out 71.5 million devices for the quarter, according to IDC data.
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That said, the South Korean tech giant saw a 10.4 percent annual decline in its smartphone shipments and will likely face difficulties in its mobile business in the coming quarters.
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Huawei shipped about 54.2 million handsets for the quarter, registering 40.9 percent on-year growth compared to Apple which shipped about 41.3 million units and saw a 0.7 percent annual growth.

Hayashi8

The final impact of a deterioration in performance of tech stocks is rearing its heads in the next fortnight as reporting starts

Hayashi8

Last week tech stocks in US lost 240bn usd.
Expect Apple results to slide tech stocks further down
but not much, as the slowing down process
of Apple performance has only started
in the first half and will show a bigger impact
in the second.

In June and July, Huawei had overtaken the sales volume of Apple and the results will be show in 3Q reporting

ryanlee0

any views on the oil related counters in sgx ?
up or down?

sUp3rb0s

Not "Avoid Stocks"? lol

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