Indentifying the market leaders is very important because market sentiment during rally can depend on market leaders. When market leaders move up, many stocks will follow. When they retrace, we will see selling pressure in many stocks. Market leaders can change. It can be Counter A, B or C now but it can change to Counter D or E and so on. Market leaders are usually the one that move a lot continuously & usually in top volume during their move.
Who are the current market leaders?. They are $Rex Intl(5WH) , $Geo Energy Res(RE4) & $AusGroup(5GJ). Geo & Rex lead for the past few days but Ausgroup is the one leading on Friday. So if any of these 3 chiong up, the other 2 and other stocks will follow to move. Likewise, if one of them drop, the other 2 will likely drop n many stocks will be under selling pressure.
So how will most stocks move this week?. I have posted the chart of these 3 market leaders. From the charts you can see that Ausgroup & Geo hit the DMA resistance & retrace. As I have mentioned before, it is not easy to break the DMA resistance ESPECIALLY if it has it has moved up so much. So likely it will take a rest & continue it's uptrend OR it will start to continue to drop from here. Nobody will know. Now we look at the past 2 days volume bar. Past 2 days volume for Rex, Ausgroup & Geo was very high compared to previous sessions. Very high volume usually means distribution has taken place. So, the chance of Geo & Ausgroup to drop on Monday or Tuesday is higher. Although Rex have not hit the DMA resistance, but it's very near to DMA resistance & volume is also very high. It MAY or MAY NOT hit the DMA resistance before it drop. Even if hit, it will still retrace. So when these 3 market leaders drop, many stocks will be affected and follow to drop.
So is the rally over?. There's still some hope. Usually this kind of rally(not bull run) will last between 2-4 weeks. The rally already 2 weeks. It may or may not continue. BUT....many cheap pennies(those less than 10cts) haven't really run. Thus, the rally will likely continue with attention shifted to cheap pennies. On Friday, we started to see cheap pennies on top volume e.g. Charisma, Jaya, RP, Jiutian, Chinese G, Vallianz, Spackman & so on. And counters like Sapphire, Asian Micro, Magnus, Joyas & so on started to move.
So....at the beginning of the coming week, be prepare to face some knee jerk selling when the 3 market leaders starts to drop. But it should stabalised after that when cheap pennies started to take over as market leaders.
Is there any money making opportunity then? Yes! If you want to long, be prepare to look out for cheap pennies. If you want to short, look at the 3 charts that I have posted. Q to short at the DMA resistance(shaded) or 1 pip below the DMA resistance. The chances of closing above the DMA resistance is low. Of course, the price may not necessary move to the DMA resistance since it has hit. It can start to drop from where it is.
The above is just my view. It may not move according to what I predicted. So pls DYODD or KKKHH. Don't blame me later on.
Just some weekend sharing. Huat ah!