ThumbTackInvestor

Just took profit on 100,000 shares at $0.25. Bought these in March at $0.235. So a profit of $1.5k means.... I just created my own "interim dividend"? lol
Still holding onto 500,000 shares.
Will buy back again if it pulls back tom, otherwise, 500,000 shares is adequate enough an exposure.

NoeticInvestor

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : Well done. Proton canon power increased..

ThumbTackInvestor

Updated views above, after analyzing FY18Q1 results.
So... what are markets missing out on, which leads to the mispricing?
Basically, the exponential growth in earnings when new production comes online.
Rise in costs will be much slower than the rise in earnings.

Assumptions I made:
1) Gross profit per tonne averages $10.5/tonne (or higher) from Q2-Q4. (FY18Q1 it's $11.31/tonne, FY17Q1 it's $11.45/tonne)
2) Company meets it's guidance of 11mil tonnes production for FY18 (achieved 1,936,817 tonnes in Q1 from SDJ alone)
3) No major, additional SG&A costs from any additional acquisitions for FY18

With a MOS of 20%+, I'm expecting EPS of 3.75 US cents for FY18, or 5.025 SG cents.
At a PE multiple of 6x, that's around 30 SG cents.

clim

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : Aha...i see...thanks for the great info, seems like you have studied a lot of commodities (coal, LNG, lithium, stainless steel) LOL

In that case I should study more into the power generation and consumption in China... whereas for Geo's internal affairs, can only keep an eye. :)

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ThumbTackInvestor

I'm sharing just 1 part of an email that a reader of SG TTI forwarded to me.
It's part of his correspondence with Tung and IR.

2. Your TBR mine has yet to commence production. Could you enlighten me if the terms of mining service agreement will also be tied to coal price index ?

GEO: Yes. BUMA will be appointed as the mining contractor as we have announced earlier. It is quite normal to benchmarked to coal price to manage costs increase in tandem to selling price.

Is this a norm ? Will the terms be more favorable compared to SDJ LOM deal which was signed when coal were at depressed prices ?

GEO: The pricing will be competitive based on current market price and volume of business. Any price negotiation cannot be based on past pricing, not just for Geo. An appropriate announcement will be made upon the signing of the mining services contract for TBR.

sysy

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : Thanks for sharing :)

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