FY2018 production guidance of 11-12mil tonnes would mean a 50% increase from 2017's figures.
Q4 2017's ave selling price of $43.41 per tonne is the highest amongst all 4 quarters in 2017, and well, actually, the highest thus far since Q1 2016.
Taking FY17's EPS of 2.88 US cents, that'd be a projected EPS of 4.32 US cents for 2018, or approximately 5.6 SG cents.
Let's include a 30% discount for MOS and to account for the unearned earnings, that's leave us with 3.93 SG cents for FY18, making the forward PE based on the current $0.23, a very low 5.85x.
Immediate catalysts: upcoming offtake agreement for TBR site.
BUMA has already proceeded to start mining the site, actual production will commence in 2 weeks +, at the start of Q2.
Thus, it is not unreasonable to expect offtake agreement to be finalized within the next month.
Immediate risks: Jan 2018 production figures are still not good.
TTI's expectations for Q1 2018: Tonnage mined to be similar to Q1 2017's, but ASP to be 10% or so higher than that of Q1 2017.
(Q1 2017's ASP is $39.45)
Estimate is for 6 months, as the Q2 production figures (Which would include TBR's), would be disclosed in Q2 2018's results which should be sometime in Aug 2018.
Disclosure: at the time of writing this, I own 600,000 shares at an average price of $0.168
Always interesting to go back to see how my thoughts months ago have panned out.
Above, I wrote:
"TTI's expectations for Q1 2018: Tonnage mined to be similar to Q1 2017's, but ASP to be 10% or so higher than that of Q1 2017."
Results: Q1 2017 tonnage: 2,212,893 tonnes. Q1 2018 tonnage: 1,936,817
A miss of 276,076 tonnes
Quite close, but still a miss.
Q1 2017 ASP: $39.45 Q1 2018 ASP: $46.49
A rise of 17.8%, substantially higher than the 10% or so that I wrote above.
As of Q1 results, taking into account financing costs, I'm expecting full year EPS of 3.75 US cents (taking into account MOS already). Assuming a PE of 6x (substantially below its peers to account for poorer operating metrics), share price would be $0.30.