OK, since TTI is in a good mood today, let me share a very important lesson/experience/concept/thought.

I never really understand why ppl actually experience FOMO. It just never really happened to me. Like never. Perhaps it's just my psyche. I always think, the world is so big, so many ppl at any 1 point, are making millions. What's FOMO? It's just your perception at that 1 puny incident that happened in your life, that you came across, or that story that you heard. Yet, there are tons of other incidents, similar stories that you haven't heard, but its happening right now as we speak. (I'm sure there's a scientific term for this phenomenon)

And in recent times, there are several examples of senselessness around.
Creative is probably the latest one, although the saga is far from over. Maybe it'd be $10 tom. Who cares? Certainly not TTI.
The bitcoin frenzy not so long ago was another example.
Now, suddenly no more posts about bitcoin. Like zilch.
I only actually know 1 person in real life who has "invested" in bitcoin, and he has lost terribly.
Now the problem with trying to jump on the latest hype without understanding it fully, is that you'd never have the confidence and the guts to go big. And if you do not dare to go big, how much of a reward do u expect to get for the risks (Due to ignorance) you're getting into? It just doesn't make sense to me.

The important lesson is, don't get involved in everything. Seriously. You don't need to. Just do what you know best. And if you really want to get involved, make sure you are at least a semi expert in it. At least.
So what if bitcoin goes to a million bucks? There are ppl minting millions every day. Just because you don't know them, you don't have FOMO. But when it comes to something that you're aware of, like bitcoin or Creative, suddenly you have FOMO.
I know folks who had nothing, and are now billionaires. (ok, not folks. just 1 guy actually). How's that for FOMO? Maybe I should panic and try to mimick him? If you don't know, stay out.
99% of folks jumping onto Creative the past few days, are just hoping for a greater fool. You may actually win by selling out to a greater fool, no doubt, but don't take it as a stroke of genius. Take it that you're less dumb than the guy that you sold to.
Both dummies, just that you manage to find a dumber one.
Don't envy those who have made money this way, and for gods' sake, don't feel you've missed out on something.

Now, I'm not just preaching to the choir. I do feel that I've missed out on something occasionally, but ONLY when I've done my homework, and STILL screwed up. For example?

This! This gives me much much MUCH more pain than all the Creatives and Bitcoins in the world combined.
https://thumbtackinvestor.wordpress.com/20...
https://thumbtackinvestor.wordpress.com/20...
https://thumbtackinvestor.wordpress.com/20...

Now, 1 thing that nobody can accuse TTI of, is of not doing my homework. But the only scenarios whereby I really feel heartache is when I've done my homework and failed to act on the opportunity aka I screwed up. Or misinterpreted. Or got lazy.
Having identified Centuriion at the end of 2016, I conveniently went on a long holiday and failed to act. And I have had superior insights.
The IR even knows my personal mobile and we had looong late night conversations about the company.
I decided to make Centurion my core position, and core positions for TTI are at least 6 digits.
Yet, I failed to act, and subsequently, watched it jump 40%.
That really gave me pain. Even today, I go back and read my own posts with a tinge of regret. Like seeing your ex puppy love gf grow up to become a hot supermodel.
Yes, just 40%. Not Creative's 400%. Not Bitcoin's 4000%.
Why? Cos 1 of them is where I'm the subject matter expert. I had it in my palm. It's an open goal. I should've scored.
The other 2? Nah, I dunno anything about them. It doesn't affect me even 1 bit.
I dunno why everyone else doesn't think the same way. To me, this simple concept is crystal clear.

And lastly, for god's sake, pls develop a sense of skeptism, pls use some individualistic thinking aka common sense. For eg. If I now tell you I grew my portfolio of 5 digits into 7 digits within a few years, the very 1st thought you should have is "REALLY"? If the 1st thing you thought of is "wow! congrats!" or "can you teach me?" Then either go shoot yourself or better yet, just DCA into STI ETF.
Why? cos 5 digits into 7 digits is a minimum ROI of 900%. Within a few years.
To put that into comparison, Michael Burry achieved world fame by growing his investors' assets by something like 420% in just under 2 years. And he did it by being completely asymmetrical, and going full on concentrated, stand against all odds type.
So is 900% in a few years possible?
Yes! Sure it still is. But is it likely? Is it common? I don't think so.
To achieve that, one has to be really concentrated, and be completely asymmetrical, yet proven correct at the end. Not jump into the latest bandwagon and hop on and off repeatedly without any basis.
Note that this is not TA or FA or whatever A.

It's just plain logic.
I dunno if it's something that you're born with, or if you can actually develop it.
I used to think it's the latter. Now, honestly, I'm afraid it's the former.

And if you can't understand at 1st glance, the simple logic behind this message, it's really best to just do something else.
Like buy property or something like that.
Since that uses a different skillset altogether.

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81 likes
148 comments
CrazilyKallangAsian

Tti, wat is sgx version of vix?

CrazilyKallangAsian

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : @InvestingNote pls help to remove comment , uploaded wrong picture. no politics here thanks.

79c688537aa0e0705c55f23d11ca4e200814e295
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johnwang

V well written, TTI, and I share your sentiment.

I’m just trying to figure out the acronym FOMO, what is that?! Haha

johnwang

Reply to @sgchinaman : Ahhh I see. Thanks for the clarification. Human instinct. Am sure we all do, just the extent.

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EDMW_Capital

Not exactly sure why people are skeptical of ways to earn a huge return, e.g. via en-blocs, lotteries, options, etc.. The issue is whether they can repeat it consistently, day in and day out, over the long term. Trading the financial markets is just one of these ways -- there are a million ways to earn a million dollar, so there is no right or wrong way to do so.

NoeticInvestor

Reply to @Hachiko : Gone with the wind.

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WolfOfHougangStreet

I absolutely agree with your points! Especially on 1) only putting in money into something that you know enough about and 2) if you don't know enough about something you won't have the guts go big and therefore your absolute returns would be less.

For me, I know of friends who had vested a significant amount of wealth - 5 digit sum for mid-twenties - into cryptocurrencies and I gotta give them credit for the weeks / months of research they did before jumping in. There's even one who went so far as to read the code on the cryptocurrencies and white paper to be convinced enough. And of course, they did stomach the volatility and did not panic sell during the plunge. These are the exceptions who truly deserve credit.

And wow, I am absolutely impressed by the crazy amount of due diligence you did for Centurion. It's interesting that two people can buy the same stock at the same (undervalued) price but only one has the conviction to hold during market crash or recession. I believe it is the amount of research and due diligence that gives you conviction in your analysis and I am sure you will definitely achieve crazy returns in the many years to come.

WolfOfHougangStreet

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : Yeah totally agree with you on this. And you know something is a bubble in the making when 1) a lot of people who didn't do research are throwing money into the asset and 2) these people do not have justification for the current price other than the huge surge in price. And when the bubble pops, these people are the first to panic sell... FOMO and greed in the making ;)

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shaokheanwong

i can't help but think of a young chap who claimed to start with 30k or so at 18 yrs old and accumulated close to 800k at 24 ur old as a student by trading. and it is after gfc hike. really? lol. perhaps. i lack of talent

sgchinaman

Reply to @shaokheanwong : probably someone with no commitments or from a well-off family
well, maybe a attempt of humblebragging :)

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theintelligentinvestor

Nicely written! I am sure some will never get it. I guess this is what makes investing so interesting. If the whole world are all rational thinkers, then the market will hardly move as any mispricing would be corrected if millions are thinking in the same manner. That means no chance for people like you to take advantage of market inefficiency. But of course the folly of man will ensure this ideal world will not exist.

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @theintelligentinvestor : That's why some things never change since the advent of capital markets.

EmmaTeo

Thanks for the write-up on Centurion. I really enjoy and appreciate it.

Muhaha

Hi TTI, chill a bit. Some people don't experience FOMO, good for them. But I feel majority of the people do experience some FOMO in their investing life and may have overcome it. Some may not.

I think FOMO is sort of built into us. FOMO doesn't necessarily apply just to the stock market. I feel that FOMO is everywhere even in our daily lives. People queue overnight to buy something, snatching items during a sales, etc...

If there are people who takes everything at face value then sometimes they do deserve to lose money. But then again, the stock market will never be the same again if there no FOMO activity.

Muhaha

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : Yup agree. But it takes a lot of discipline to fight that monster.

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nihao

Thank you. This is very well put and instructive. @InvestingNote is there a way to pin postings or allow people to vote on the most popular ones?

PomeloFarmer

"And lastly, for god's sake, pls develop a sense of skeptism, pls use some individualistic thinking aka common sense. For eg. If I now tell you I grew my portfolio of 5 digits into 7 digits within a few years, the very 1st thought you should have is "REALLY"? If the 1st thing you thought of is "wow! congrats!" or "can you teach me?" Then either go shoot yourself or better yet, just DCA into STI ETF.
Why? cos 5 digits into 7 digits is a minimum ROI of 900%. Within a few years.
To put that into comparison, Michael Burry achieved world fame by growing his investors' assets by something like 420% in just under 2 years. And he did it by being completely asymmetrical, and going full on concentrated, stand against all odds type.
So is 900% in a few years possible?
Yes! Sure it still is. But is it likely? Is it common? I don't think so.
To achieve that, one has to be really concentrated, and be completely asymmetrical, yet proven correct at the end. Not jump into the latest bandwagon and hop on and off repeatedly without any basis.
Note that this is not TA or FA or whatever A."

well said

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