Nice concise summary, I love it, I am vested, but I have to point these out:
1) "Higher coal prices and higher volume delivered - To top it off, the company has delivered a total of 2.4 million tonnes of coal that quarter which has far exceeded its initial target of 1.8 million tonnes."
Not true.
They guided for 6 mil tonnes for FY16, and as recent as Nov 2016, reinforced the guidance in their analyst briefing. See the attached deck slide. So Q4 is supposed to deliver 2.85mil tonnes, and they just barely missed their guidance a bit.
Full year they did 5.51mil tonnes, which is below the 6mil tonnes guidance by just a bit.
2) "Based on its closing price of S$0.31, Geo Energy commands a cheap P/E ratio of 11.40 and dividend yield of 3.2% once the dividend of S$0.01 is declared."
FY16 EPS is 1.84 cents. So PE if you based on ttm earnings is actually 16.8x. Unless you are using projected forward earnings, in which case if you use Q4 earnings and project it for FY17, it'd be EPS 4.85 cents, then the PE would be 6.4. Either way, it's not 11.40.
And even then that's not very accurate obviously cos EPS depends on so many factors like coal prices. Also, Geo Energy will be paying for TBR acquisition partially with shares, so the share base will enlarge in 2017, leading to some dilution to EPS.
And finally, even your quoted PE of 11.40 is not necessarily "cheap". Cos the industry average ranges from <5 to >20.
Coal India trades at PE 13+, Adaro Energy trades at PE 20+
By Geo Energy's own admission, based on Geo Energy's own briefing slides, they say the industry PE average is 10.1-10.8.
So PE 11.40 is actually above average.
Nice concise summary, I love it, I am vested, but I have to point these out:
1) "Higher coal prices and higher volume delivered - To top it off, the company has delivered a total of 2.4 million tonnes of coal that quarter which has far exceeded its initial target of 1.8 million tonnes."
Not true.
They guided for 6 mil tonnes for FY16, and as recent as Nov 2016, reinforced the guidance in their analyst briefing. See the attached deck slide. So Q4 is supposed to deliver 2.85mil tonnes, and they just barely missed their guidance a bit.
Full year they did 5.51mil tonnes, which is below the 6mil tonnes guidance by just a bit.
2) "Based on its closing price of S$0.31, Geo Energy commands a cheap P/E ratio of 11.40 and dividend yield of 3.2% once the dividend of S$0.01 is declared."
FY16 EPS is 1.84 cents. So PE if you based on ttm earnings is actually 16.8x. Unless you are using projected forward earnings, in which case if you use Q4 earnings and project it for FY17, it'd be EPS 4.85 cents, then the PE would be 6.4. Either way, it's not 11.40.
And even then that's not very accurate obviously cos EPS depends on so many factors like coal prices. Also, Geo Energy will be paying for TBR acquisition partially with shares, so the share base will enlarge in 2017, leading to some dilution to EPS.
And finally, even your quoted PE of 11.40 is not necessarily "cheap". Cos the industry average ranges from <5 to >20.
Coal India trades at PE 13+, Adaro Energy trades at PE 20+
By Geo Energy's own admission, based on Geo Energy's own briefing slides, they say the industry PE average is 10.1-10.8.
So PE 11.40 is actually above average.
Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : thanks for pointing out all that! appreciate it :)