My 4 Key Ideas for 2018 and Beyond

These 4 positions is where I put most of my money on for the year 2017, they are my long term bets for 2018 and beyond
I believe that their valuations are still fair for entry despite this bull market

$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)
I believe earnings growth will explode again post thai king mourning.
The biz is very cash generative and the recent acquisitions will further help push earnings growth.
3% dividends + 5-8% long term earnings growth for total 8-11% expected long term returns

$SingTel(Z74.SI)
Solid decade track record of same or higher dividends, I believe I am getting close to 5% yield with long term dividend growth of around 3% for a solid and stable 8% long term total returns
ST is very diversified so I am not too fearful of the 4th telco's entry

$ComfortDelGro(C52.SI)
Even without the taxi biz, I believe their remaining biz will be able to maintain the 10 cent dividends payout for a solid 5% yield. I expect 2017 and 2018 earnings to be down by single digits, followed by growth resuming again in 2019 onward.
I expect a 5% yield and long term 3-5% earnings growth in their public transport segment (bus/train) for long term returns of 8-10%
do note that my valuation model conservatively puts their taxi biz as zero value

$Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)
I believe SS still has room to grow towards 50 stores in singapore, followed by their expansion into china market. I am expecting 4% dividends + 4-8% long term earnings growth for a total expected return of around 8-12%.

So far my strategy has been to look for solid companies with over 5-10 years track record of earnings and dividends. I often set a min return requirement of 8%, so therefore most if not all of my picks I aim for 8-10% returns or higher in the long run.
So far over the last decade plus I have made a XIRR of around 12%, so I intend to continue my current strategy of quality companies for long term ^^

As the market goes higher and in 2018 we are likely to see an even higher index... I probably wouldn't be doing anymore buying next year. I am done shopping and I'll be patiently riding this bull while rebalancng at times into some cash.

Do note that I am vested in all 4 counters and my views are strongly biased, please do your own due diligence before following the same bet.

Cheers

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73 likes 146 comments
RetiredYoungMan

added 10,000 TB today to bring my total position to 60,000
TB is now my top position cheers

Sporeshare

Reply to @RetiredOldMan : I Thnk Long term should see the benefit . Short term high debts , lower profit .

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RetiredYoungMan

added 10,000 more shares of SS today ^_^
total now 40,000
looking to bring it to 50,000 if it goes even lower

RetiredYoungMan

Reply to @matthewang : so far redmart and amazon these online players only taking 2% of the market share, 98% of groceries still bought physically from shop

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RetiredYoungMan

SS pulling back a bit, 90 and 92 cents level seems decent for accumulation, i looking to add more ^_^

limraymond

Reply to @RetiredOldMan : I see the bottoming is near but as it is Dec side way movement i always there. Just look out for heavy selling.

RetiredYoungMan

must see if CDG can reach 2.00 and hold above that level, if so would be a healthy sign

if still below 2.00 means traders still uncertain

RetiredYoungMan

CDG up 3-4%, i think the bottom is likely over

RetiredYoungMan

Reply to @seba240698 : if buy not scared
if scared dun buy

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eugenetavano

Singtel will disappoint!

limchris8

Reply to @eugenetavano : For near term, Singtel is upward trend. Recently, there is a worldwide re-rating of Telcos. That is why there is a spillover to Singtel. Currently it is trading with CD. When the Hill Street Telecom Bldg is finally sold, it should add to Singtel profits. I no longer have Singtel. I am merely talking about facts. No need to reply to me. It is too tedious for me to see too many threads. Cheers!

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matthewang

Reply to @matthewang : ST Huat ah!!! SH Huat ah!!!! SS not so huat.....

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limraymond

Reply to @thamwk : Market weak due to banking stock correction and the div in Singtel does provide the reason to be vested, the next resistance will be 3.85.

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Hachiko

CDG 1.93 now! Insiders sure know something?

tansoonchai

Reply to @Hachiko : Maybe 1.85 tmr , nobody will know..
1.80 is my base line, might grab some in between along the way. Feel no hurry for entry as the trend should be downwards for some period

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tansoonchai

Can share average price you are vested in?

tansoonchai

Reply to @RetiredOldMan : Haha fully understand your feelings

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Recommended & Related Posts

$ThaiBev(Y92.SI) Q3 results out, honestly i feel quite okay in my view

Its confusing to read because a year ago they had big one time gains from FNN and FCL

The big drop in reported profits may seem scary but the focus should be on core earnings which came in at around 6bil baht which is around 5% above analyst’s bearish estimates, so i expect thailand to bounce up a bit tomorrow if not likely the 70 cents level should be the support/floor till we get to the Q4 year end results

Sadly the world cup fever in june did not help much as april/may consumptions were weak, i believe Q4 to be similiar or slightly better

On the bright side their borrowing cost were low and staggered out nicely over 10 years, thus the acqusitions made were very slighly accretive

Still vested heavily in this counter as i believe that given it a few more years it would solidify into asean’s biggest Beverage Company.

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Expiry:
Target Price
$1.0
(+35.14%)
NOW:

Vested 200,000 shares at avg cost 0.78
Give it two years to run
If scared dont buy
If buy dont scared

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Come share your shopping list for this bear market

$SingTel(Z74.SI) 2.80 for 6% yield
$DBS(D05.SI) 24.00 for 5% yield
$ComfortDelGro(C52.SI) 2.00 for 5% yield

$Frasers Cpt Tr(J69U.SI) 2.00 for 6% yield
$Frasers L&I Tr(BUOU.SI) 0.90 for 7% yield

No cheap no buy ^_^

Cheers

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Come share your shopping list for this bear market

$SingTel(Z74.SI) 2.80 for 6% yield
$DBS(D05.SI) 24.00 for 5% yield
$ComfortDelGro(C52.SI) 2.00 for 5% yield

$Frasers Cpt Tr(J69U.SI) 2.00 for 6% yield
$Frasers L&I Tr(BUOU.SI) 0.90 for 7% yield

No cheap no buy ^_^

Cheers

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$ThaiBev(Y92.SI) super buy up at closing to 81.5!!!
Power of world cup!!
Huat till teeth drop sia!!!
Huat ahhh

Vested 150,000 share

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