Reply to @JeremiahYeo : I did a DEM split into 3years and 7 years. 10% growth for the first 3 years assumes only growth locally, and no growth for overseas expansion. Also, as this valuation was done some time back, I have to admit that this 10% input was derived partially with a backward looking mindset, by comparing with FY12 - FY15 historical CAGR of 27%. (I am in the process of revaluing ISOteam with a forward looking mindset, attempting to include factors like, projecting the rate of increase of public housing in Singapore, and then correspondingly projecting, say, the RR segment by a reasonable growth rate in proportion to its existing market share.) For the next 7 years earnings are projected at a growth rate in tandem with risk free rate, which I use the average rate of 10 year SSB and CPF OA. Also, know that this discounted earnings model I used does not include horizon PV unlike the conventional corporate valuation model
After reading the write-up (well) done by the little snowball, I decided to look into DCF as well and my values also came close to his conservative estimate, as well as what I got from discounting earnings. PS: I only use discounted earnings if 1)CAPEX fluctuations make it difficult for me to project and estimate FCF. 2) Historical quality of earnings of that particular company is well and consistent - an ideal is where OCF>NPAT
So many good news about this company but price not moving at all :(
Reply to @JeremiahYeo : I did a DEM split into 3years and 7 years. 10% growth for the first 3 years assumes only growth locally, and no growth for overseas expansion. Also, as this valuation was done some time back, I have to admit that this 10% input was derived partially with a backward looking mindset, by comparing with FY12 - FY15 historical CAGR of 27%. (I am in the process of revaluing ISOteam with a forward looking mindset, attempting to include factors like, projecting the rate of increase of public housing in Singapore, and then correspondingly projecting, say, the RR segment by a reasonable growth rate in proportion to its existing market share.) For the next 7 years earnings are projected at a growth rate in tandem with risk free rate, which I use the average rate of 10 year SSB and CPF OA. Also, know that this discounted earnings model I used does not include horizon PV unlike the conventional corporate valuation model
After reading the write-up (well) done by the little snowball, I decided to look into DCF as well and my values also came close to his conservative estimate, as well as what I got from discounting earnings. PS: I only use discounted earnings if 1)CAPEX fluctuations make it difficult for me to project and estimate FCF. 2) Historical quality of earnings of that particular company is well and consistent - an ideal is where OCF>NPAT
My estimate previously done here on IN: $ISOTeam(5WF) :[https://www.investingnote.com/posts/31869]
Very good write up. Always look forward to similar articles from Ernest.
http://sgshareinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/01...