$Duty Free Intl(5SO.SI) I have released an analysis of DFI. Very solid business and company with strong growth potential. Readers of my previous analysis on $ComfortDelGro(C52.SI) (ComfortDelGro : Is our transport giant breaking down?) would be familiar with our in-depth analysis. Please give your feedback! Thanks.

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OngEric

As written in my analysis,
<<
Conclusion
Our discounted cashflow model factoring in the above thesis led us to the following price target to buy DFI.
Using DCF Free cash flow 10 years Buy DFI at 0.22
Using DCF Free cash flow 10 years with a 10 x FCF exit multiple Buy DFI at 0.29
>>

My target price seem so Low when DFI was trading at 30ct. Now it's 25ct. Maybe I should have stuck to my own conviction and waited!!!

I have revised it to 0.20 factoring in the RM41m fine.

OngEric

I'll add some more at 220/240/250

Ccm

Guys, I have joined in the fun ..40 lots@25.5 !!

OngEric

Stay strong guys! Tough to be a value investor.....

Mogambo

Reply to @OngEric : I have added more than 30K shares in the last 4 months hope it recovers fast.. Thinking of adding more and more and more and more whenever funds are available to me.

Mogambo

as per my analysis 2nd inverse shoulder on long term charts is half formed it may take another 3 months to recover and go up then in 6 to 12 months only BOOM BOOM BOOM

2V_

Have not look at DFS all this while.

What is the business model ? In the past , DFS SG will get all the tourists via Agencies. Then agencies will get some rebates from sales.

Thus the higher the tourist volume, the higher the profitability

Mogambo

added more the last 2 days was lucky to add some in my kitty at lower rates of 26 cents that damn cheap for this performer.

jeremyowtaip

Thanks Eric for the nice analysis of DFI! I noticed you used DCF model to reach price targets to buy DFI. I took a brief look at the cashflow trend of DFI and observed their FCF every other year is quite unpredictable and volatile to adopt a DCF model to reach price targets to buy in. May I clarify how did you use the DCF model to reach your respective price targets to buy in DFI?

jeremyowtaip

Reply to @OngEric : Thanks Eric for your reply again! Does your AR AP refers to annual report adjusted profits? Your method of using EBIT plus non cash items does focus on the actual profitability of the business. But isn't a business supposed to factor in the many moving parts to consider as well? Isn't it that we have to also assess how the business deal with their trade receivables and payables as part of their operating efficiency in how they deal with all the items which could potentially affect their yearly cash flows if one is using a DCF model in valuation?

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layers

so not cheap snuff to buy?

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$Duty Free Intl(5SO.SI)
To:
BB (Duty Free)

Sell down to 20cts if you want, don't slowly sell day by day. I'll wait at 20-24cts.

Thank you

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$SUTL Enterprise(BHU.SI) Hi Guys, I have written a research idea on SUTL, owner of ONE15 Marina Club brand in Sentosa. But its such a under covered company among value investors. I believed it is currently misplaced because the market is discounting its ONE15 Sentosa earnings at 15% discount rate. Too high for a listed company.

We have also made a site visit to Puteri Harbour, Malaysia to see the potential for our very own eyes.

Readers of my previous articles on $Duty Free Intl(5SO.SI) and $ComfortDelGro(C52.SI) should enjoy this.

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$SUTL Enterprise(BHU.SI) Hi Guys, I have written a research idea on SUTL, owner of ONE15 Marina Club brand in Sentosa. But its such a under covered company among value investors. I believed it is currently misplaced because the market is discounting its ONE15 Sentosa earnings at 15% discount rate. Too high for a listed company.

We have also made a site visit to Puteri Harbour, Malaysia to see the potential for our very own eyes.

Readers of my previous articles on $Duty Free Intl(5SO.SI) and $ComfortDelGro(C52.SI) should enjoy this.

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$ComfortDelGro(C52.SI) released its Q3 results today. My Q3 operating profit estimates missed the results by S$10m! (1% of revenue). I estimated $102m while CDG Q3 came in at $111.5m. The main difference came in estimating interest income and expense (difficult). Need to put in more work and try harder!

Overall CDG net profit of $91.7m much better than my net profit estimate of $74m.

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OngEric OngEric 's post

$ComfortDelGro(C52.SI)
*21/09/2017 ComfortDelGro: Is our transport giant breaking down?
*Edited on 25/09/2017

ComfortDelGro Thesis
1. The double whammy of bad news (i) Exodus of CDG drivers to Grab and (ii) Failure to cliché the tender for Thomson – East Coast Line has resulted in massive sell down on CDG share. We believed institutional players are selling due to the “loyalty” of CDG retail shareholders. The ferocity of the sell down also points to institutions exiting.

2. We believe there is value in CDG. The strong cash flow generated from the bus and taxi operations globally is impressive and consistent. Although its moat is being attacked, CDG is likely to defend its moat for at least 10 years to come. Higher private car hires regulations from Singapore and China government increases CDG moat.

3. High depreciation added back to free cash flow and Singapore’s Bus Contracting Model improves CDG free cash flow and we believe the market underestimates this.

4. The upcoming BCM tender for the Bukit Merah Package belonged to SBS and there is a high possibility that SBS will lose the tender (Decrease in bus revenue of $90m / year). Given the short-term possibility of a downward pressure, there is opportunity for investors to pick up CDG with a larger margin of safety.

Detailed analysis and numerical impact on CDG as attached in report by @OngEric

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Expiry:
Target Price
$0.37
(+34.55%)
NOW:

$Duty Free Intl(5SO.SI) After the price spike from the hype of Heinemann stake, we see Duty Free balance sheet slowly transformed into an efficient business model. This should enable Duty Free to be more nimble in the competitive retail business.

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