Expiry:
Target Price
$96.0
(-23.15%)
NOW:

$BYND

LOL
No respite.
Still short this junk by selling naked calls whenever the premiums are worth it.

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4 comments
ThumbTackInvestor

tonight is day 1 post lockup expiry.

Shares are down almost 10% in premarket afterhours trading, despite comp reporting a 1st ever quarterly profit.

Will be covering my direct equity shorts tonight ard opening bell, expecting a windfall.

raymondong

Kind of going to hit your target liao...you think will dead cat bounce?

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @raymondong : Actually, this would be my 4th estimate that hit target.
Already hit 3 times prior:

https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1611672

https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1547919

https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1491351
I've shorted this since it was like at $230 or so.

Hmmm would there be a dead cat bounce? possible, but I wouldn't dare to bet on that.
Cos lock up expiry is on the end of October, and following which, there would be a big huge deluge of shares flooding the markets.
And you might be attracted to it cos of the massive drop, but at this rate, the company is still valued at something like 30x P/S, which is STILL absolutely crazy.
In contrast, Tyson, a big food conglomerate with global distribution channels, and a well known and trusted brand, with long track record and history, is valued at something like 3x sales.
And the only reason why we're using sales here is cos BYND has no profit to talk about and NEVER had.

So if you think of it that way, despite the massive drop, IMO it's still incredibly over priced.
Full of idealistic idiots who got conned on a story, albeit a good one.
There may be a dead cat bounce, but I'd rather not bet on it. There are many things with better odds.
Instead, on the contrary, if you know options, I'm seeing a lot of opportunity in going short the far OTM calls expiring in 2 weeks.
You can sell very far OTM calls with a very wide berth of safety, and still get pretty attractive premiums for the next to negligible risk. Those buying are betting on the earnings release, and hoping for good results.
Thing is, I think the results will be good... but markets are already expecting good results, so it's risky to try to bet on that.
So I'd rather find easy and relatively predictable things to do.
You can get an easy 3-5% return by selling those calls, within 2 weeks. Best part of it all is that you'd get a deal kinda like what WB gets at Berkshire: you don't have to cough up a cent, and until the options get exercised, you get free use of the capital to generate more returns.


Recommended & Related Posts

Moment Of Silence Please.
- Original Post from SG THUMBATACK INVESTOR

I’ve previously written several times about the absurdity of Beyond Meat’s valuations, and what the market thinks the company would do.


To Infinity & Beyond? Nah!


I’ve also been shorting BYND by selling naked calls on it for the past several months, and BYND has been extremely well behaved, going in an almost linear fashion downwards. I’ve answered some queries on shorting BYND, and have also put up some of my short options (the ones that haven’t expired then):


+1,680% In 4 Years!


Yet, tonight, it all comes to a head.


BYND’s top shareholders and insider’s shares lock-up expires after 6mths post-IPO, and they are freely traded tonight.


Finally, after months of extremely, totally, mind-blowingly ridiculous over-valuation, BYND has now tanked to being just ridiculously over valued.



A 20% drop in a single day is no joke… but BYND has been dropping every day for the past 2 months prior to today’s 20% drop.


With it, I’ve locked in a very nice $20k USD gain on my direct short position, which was entered into just last Friday by selling some in-the-money calls:



Collecting a $20k USD profit over a literal 1 weekend, makes me a happy man.


Funny thing is, I got a little lucky here.


Thing is, BYND timed it’s earnings release to be yesterday (Monday) after trading hours. Exactly in time for the lock up expiry today (Tuesday)


Come on, that ain’t a coincidence is it, Ethan?!


I was expecting BYND to report stellar results. This was my comment a month ago, in response to a query in IN:



So on Monday night, there I was, sitting in front of my lappie, weighing the pros and cons of keeping my direct short position.


On the 1 hand, I knew the Monday’s results would be good, which could possibly be a huge downer for my short position.


On the other hand, Tuesday’s the lock up expiry, and I expected that to be a strong negative for the share price, since I’m pretty sure the something like 1000% gain in the share price since IPO was largely caused by a series of short squeezes due to liquidity issues.


It was honestly a tough call.


1 strong factor on each side. I could’ve locked in a $3k USD profit if I had covered on Monday, which would’ve still been a pretty good piece of shorting business to do for a single day.


In the end, since I am on holiday currently and hit with a bout of food poisoning, I decided to screw the thinking after 30mins of pondering, and go to bed early instead.


When in doubt, take a deep breath and do nothing right?


I really had no strength to do too much logical thinking anyway.


Food poisoning turned out to be a blessing in disguise cos I was paid an additional $17k USD or so for sleeping early and waiting just 1 more day.


Probably the other “lesson” to be gleaned here is that betting on “good results” to lead to an immediate share price rise is really quite simplistic, level 1 thinking.


Cos BYND really did report very good results.


Yet the share price tanked 20%. (I covered at opening bell when it tanked >20% even)


No kidding about the good results part:



Beat revenue estimates, beat earnings estimate, 1st ever profitable quarter, and even raised forward revenue guidance for full year.


I mean, I dunno how much better can the results get. Beating every metric you can think of.


Yet it tanked 20% tonight.


I wonder how many longs saw the results, and felt optimistic and happy, hoping for a reprieve from a 2 months constant drop… only to be hit in the gutter by a sucker punch.


Hell no, it’s not the bottom yet.


Too simplistic, level 1 thinking, my friends.


What’s next?


CEO Ethan has publicly reassured that he’s “not touching his shares after lock up expiry”


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/29/beyond-meat-shares-plunge-nearly-20percent-despite-solid-results-as-insiders-rush-for-the-exits.html


Yet, he also can’t say the same for employees or institutional shareholders.


Also, he and other insiders sold out in a secondary offering at USD 160 a few months ago, so that says a lot too.


I’ve shorted BYND by rolling over far OTM calls over the past 2-3 months, collecting about $60k USD in premiums.


I’ve previously put in 4 short estimates on BYND, all of which have hit, a 5th and final one, would also very likely hit within this week:







I’ve covered my direct shorts, and intend to let my short calls expire uneventfully.


Unless eating their ersatz meat starts curing cancer, it’s quite impossible for the calls to get exercised. (We’re talking about an almost 100% rise from the current share price for the calls to get exercised. Within the next 8 days!) (heh, yep. The impossible pun is intended)


I’ve looked at BYND again, and finally, the options thread is starting to look logical.


Which is bad news for me cos there’s nothing much for me to exploit anymore.


The calls that I want to sell are too cheap to be worth allocating capital into, and suddenly everyone has turned negative on the company.


Will the share price tank further?


It could jolly well drop another 50% from here!


Yet, I prefer not to squeeze water from rocks.


Leave the party early.


Leave something on the table. Always.


So as of now, I’m done with BYND. Not much meat in shorting from here.haha, get it?


A total profit of about $80k USD isn’t too shabby for 4 months.


Perhaps, the best way to illustrate the craziness and the hype, is this:



Credits to @metalcorn, who also anyway, candidly admitted that he stole this from someone’s twitter feed.


This image, is sooooooo not going to age well for Thomas George.


I dunno how can anybody predict, to such a level of certainty, what the share price would be like almost a decade from now. Might as well predict what are the lottery numbers next week.


Moment of silence please, for BYND.


On a different note, since I previously briefly wrote about FutureLand, I thought I’d close the loop by updating that as of today, I’ve taken profit fully on my position:



Having sold my last remaining 60,000 shares today at HKD 8.38, I currently hold no more shares.



And already, the markets are making me look stupid by continuing to assign every higher share prices for FutureLand right after I sold.


Ah well, can’t complain here.


With the latest successful investments and the conclusions of these positions, I think I’ve a shot at further increasing my ROI from the last update:


+1,680% In 4 Years!


Ending 2019 with a ROI exceeding 40% would be really nice, so let’s see in 2 mths’ time.


Cheerios.



$BYND

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Expiry:
Target Price
$80.0
(-24.11%)
NOW:

$BYND

BYND has been TTI's best short. Ever.
Shorted since close to USD240, 3 out of 4 short estimates have hit, with the 4th likely to hit tonight or sometime this week.
Heres a 5th and final short.

Company reported stellar quarterly results, and a profitable quarter for the 1st time ever.
Unfortunately, it just shows how crazy the hype was.
At EPS of 6cents, even if I generously assume company grows earnings at a 100% clip EVERY QUARTER, we'd still have EPS of 90cents for the full yr, giving BYND a valuation of PE 117x!

As Ive written before, this is the modern day tulip.
Many ppl have been burnt, more will be.
Covering my direct shorts tonight, but still shorting in the form of naked calls.
Lock up expiry starts tonight.
I dont believe the major SHs, many of which are funds who can only collect fees after locking in their profits, wont be inching to sell out.
The exit doors pretty crowded.

Crazy hyped up situations like these, are the best time to make big profits, whichever way it goes.

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$BYND
Looks and tastes like real beef.
Impossible burger.

Havent tried Beyond though.

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Expiry:
Target Price
$125.0
(-22.35%)
NOW:

$BYND
Kroger coming up with own line of meatless meat nonsense.
End is nigh.
Many morons wouldve lost a fortune by the time TTI's flurry of short estimates are hit.
The most vulgar of 4 letter words in investing, must surely be "HYPE".

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$BYND

I LOVE J.P. MORGAN!!!!!!!!!!

(no, not their shares!)

Global stock exchanges are where the big boys play.
It's the promised land of riches... but many ppl die terribly, in order for that few victors to stand in glory and drenched with the stench of wealth.
Mind you, this is not the arena for safety or caution, there're so many dirty tricks being played, with the retail investor usually ending up on the hook.
To date, I've communicated (aka comforted) 2 separate US investors, who have wiped out their portfolios worth several millions, just on the back of a couple of positions that totally went the other way, and they stuck to their guns (conviction, they say!), until it's too late....

TTI shorted BYND going into the earnings:
https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1547919

And continued shorting.
Nobody would disagree that I've been, at least approximately, right here...
but ironically, I was wishing it didn't tank THIS fast (Despite being short).
This is because I'm short by selling naked calls, and I hope to continue rolling over more and more and more calls when they expire, sort of "compounding" my premiums, ending this beautiful crescendo by the time the lock up expiry comes in November 2019.
That'd be a magnificent finale to a "shorting crescendo"!
What a plan!
But if it's falling THIS fast, what room is there to sell more calls? My window of opportunity shrinks real fast. A slow gradual decline would suit me best.

ENTER JP MORGAN!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3493203-jpmo...

Re-rating BYND from neutral to overweight, the share price just popped almost 10% earlier (it's now at like 8% as I type this).

GOSH. What are the reasons that JPM can give for this ridiculous valuation, when literally the WHOLE WORLD knows it's IMPOSSIBLE (hehe being naughty here, get the joke?) to fulfill?!

Officially:
"JPMorgan takes Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) to an Overweight rating from Neutral as it points to the potential for the company to acquire new food service customers. The analyst team also makes the case that valuation on Beyond Meat is attractive on a long-term view.

The firm is also positive on the near term with new chains selling Beyond Burger products. "We thus think the potential for sales to keep beating consensus estimates is legitimate," advises JP."

In Reality:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busin...

I'd quote the last paragraph:
"Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan and Credit Suisse are serving as lead book-running managers for the offering, expected to close on or about Aug. 5."

Having just recently collected fees for underwriting the secondary offering at USD 160, they have now unloaded most of their shares to either the dumb retail investor or their clients. (man, I really think someone has to be the EPITOME of stupidity to buy into the secondary offering. Sky high valuation aside, the fact that the management is selling to you instead of waiting for the lock up to expire?! Come on people! Anyone who bought the secondary should seriously be banned from pro creating.)

Since the secondary offering just 2weeks + ago, the share price has continued dropping precipitously, such that prior to today, it's trading way below the secondary offering price of USD 160. (About 20% below)
This means that JPMorgan is on the hook for the shares they have underwritten and NOT sold to the dumb public (not enough people THAT dumb), and/or they sold to clients and home offices that are now banging on their tables and demanding an explanation.

Que in their analyst. "Issue the bloody OVERWEIGHT CALL now!"

I'm quite amazed the markets really reacted to the analyst buy call.

I still have a tiny bit of faith in humanity's basic intellect, so I'm guessing that everyone knows it's bullshit, but it's just a bunch of traders trying to jump in for a quick profit. TA guys seeing it rise, so also jumping in for a quick ride, with their mere jumping in creating the impetus for a further jump in the share price.

Dumb as hell if u ask me, but... I'm not complaining.

Thanks to JPM, TTI gets to pile on the shorts again tonight.
Selling calls so fast, that my laptop actually hung and I had to reboot. (See attached)
Total premiums collected tonight: USD 11,703.10
As I type this, all options sold are in the money. (green)
If it goes up even more tomorrow night, who knows, I might finally get to buy some of those puts that I've been eyeing.

JPM ah JPM, you piece of corn cob (con job), TTI is calling your bluff!!!

No wonder Burry and Eisman (portrayed as Baum in the movie) feel so angry with the system during the GFC, despite making a massive fortune for themselves.
These global financiers are just a bunch of crooks scamming off the general public. It happens every day, to different extent, and in so MANY different ways... but it doesn't stop.
US financial markets is just the tool, the game, where the average Joe dies ugly, without knowing why.

TTI ain't as noble as Burry or Eisman, I just want to win... but even I sometimes........ can't bear to look.
It's cruel.

Edit: sold yet more calls as I type this, but lazy to reupload the image.

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