Today $STI(^STI.IN) ownself drop. The rest green green.

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14 comments
losemoneyinvestor

STI do drop test first. see if tamper glass works so can recommend fellow friends like Nasdaq, Dow and HSI.

How noble we are.

Thunderbuddy

think most of them started to slide slower after 3pm, right?

diyquant

Reply to @YNWA : i think sti started slide after lunch

fangneetoh

Hk Down 3000 points. Up 184 points. Good?don't deceived by market. Overall trends not good

tanmingwang

I think STI predict US will drop instead. Lets see.

DareDevil

Singapore is Asia safe haven. When it is risk-on, people tend to sell Singapore to buy other markets.

Heracles

Reply to @DareDevil : If Singapore is asia safe haven, isnt it when its risk-on, ppl tend to stay in safe haven . Did i misunderstand sth here.

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gagnant76

DJ futures turn slightly red, STI always kiasi one...sure red red first...haha

diyquant

Reply to @gagnant76 : us drop sti drop, china drop sti also drop, sigh...

Spinning_Top

Ownself drop ownself???


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The last time most of us guessed correctly whether Xi will meet Trump at the G20 summit. Come lets guess what you think would be the outcome of the meeting between Xi and Trump. The outcome will have huge impact on the direction of the stock market. $STI(^STI.IN)

Lots of suspense, lots of drama ar!

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Trade deal will be made. Everyone happy
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Partial deal made. The rest to be continue after G20
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No deal made but nice dinner chat. Trade talk to restart after G20
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Trump walks away like the 2nd N.Korea summit
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Meeting cancelled before G20
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I don't care. Sideline see show...
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6 days left to vote

Singapore portfolio

How was May like for Singapore market?
Singapore stock market tumbled in May as trade talks between US and China broke down, stoking fear of trade war escalation and global recession. In addition Singapore posted disappointing April export data and was recently branded by US Treasury as a currency manipulator. For the month of May, $STI(^STI.IN) fell a whopping 8.31%, erasing most of the gains it made in the past few months. "Sell in May and go away" indeed, as what the system has anticipated in last month's report.

How was the SG portfolio performance in May?
My system's SG portfolio performance in May was slightly better off as compared to STI given that it only fell 4.18%, all thanks to the system's sound portfolio risk management module named MATA (check out the Strategy page to find out how MATA works). Starting early May, the system has scaled down its exposure and increased its cash level to more than 50% as MATA sensed that the market is weakening. Still it is a red month for the portfolio. Still there are lots of failed break outs in this weak market. However, the system will continue to systematically and patiently test the market and when the opportune time comes, deploy the large pile of cash to ride the market reversal.

Total return since inception fell to +30.26% still ahead of benchmark STI ETF ($STI ETF(ES3.SI) ).

May return: -4.18% (vs ES3: -7.09%)
YTD return: -5.21% (vs ES3: +3.59%)
Total return since inception (since June 2016): +30.26% (vs ES3: +22.96%)

What's going to happen in June?
As mentioned in last month's report, the system MATA module saw the risk of market weakening as we move into May despite the big rally of STI. True enough the market reversed and it happened pretty quick. Moving into June, the overall market is still weak as the percentage of uptrending stocks continues to drop. However, the system has not deemed the market to have entered bearish mode yet unless it weakens further in June. In addition, we are also entering an oversold region so a rebound could be imminent.

Actual SG portfolio performance post at
https://diyquantfund.blogspot.com/2019/06/...

US portfolio

How was May like for US stock market?
As mentioned in the last monthly report, the system MATA module has reported that the overall market has plateaued and there could be reversal coming in May. True enough, the stock market has been tumbling for the whole of May as trade talk between US and China come to a standstill and Trump imposes tariff on Mexico at the end of the month. For the month of May, Dow Jones tumbled 6.68%, S&P500 fell 6.58% and NASDAQ fell 7.93%. "Sell in May and go away" indeed!

How did the US portfolio perform in May?
Thanks to MATA analysis that anticipated the market reversal in the beginning of May, the system has off loaded most of its holding going into May and was sheltered from the blood bath that ensued. Currently the portfolio is already 90% in cash. By the end of May, the system US portfolio only made a slight loss of 2.25% in May as compared to 6.58% decline for S&P500. That is one of the characteristics of a trend following system - to exit when the market starts to reverse and protect profit. If market continues to decline, losses will be kept at minimum and once the market reverses uptrend again, the huge pile of cash will be ready to be deployed. This is also one of the reason why the system beta is only half that of SPY (meaning only half as volatile as SPY!). Check out the system alpha and beta in our backtesting post.

Total return since inception is now +64.40%.
Portfolio May return: -2.25% (vs SPY -6.34%)
Portfolio YTD return: -3.13% (vs SPY +10.67%)
Total return since inception (since June 2016): +64.40% (vs SPY +39.15%)

What is going to happen in June?
Based on the system's MATA analysis, overall market is still weak. The G20 meeting between Trump and Xi could provide some hope for a market rally if things work out. As mentioned earlier, system is currently hoarding lots of cash (90% of portfolio is cash) so if the market continues to tumble, impact to the portfolio is minimised while waiting patiently for the next big uptrend wave to ride.

Actual US portfolio performance post at
https://diyquantfund.blogspot.com/2019/06/...

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diyquant started a poll
31.2 K

Since the beginning of May, $STI(^STI.IN) has fallen 5.73% after the US China trade talks have fallen apart and Singapore export data disappoint. Many have sold of their positions as the market weakens while many others have also added their positions as things become cheap.

Let's do a survey again, roughly what percentage of your portfolio is current in cash (or equivalent of it)?

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My Singapore portfolio performance for the month of April 2019. Not that fantastic as compared to the raging $STI(^STI.IN). A position in $Penguin Intl(BTM.SI) could have boosted the return but ended up being eroded by $China Everbright(U9E.SI) during the last trading day of the month.

But most importantly is to be patient, follow the trading rules and continue to trade systematically. After all this strategy has been backtested to beat the market in the long run.

More details at
https://diyquantfund.blogspot.com/2019/05/...

For US portfolio performance, please visit
https://diyquantfund.blogspot.com/2019/05/...

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Some of the Singapore stocks caught in the system's radar for this week. Number of breakout stocks remains high. Bull continue to be in charge after $STI(^STI.IN) broke out 2 weeks ago.

$SingTel(Z74.SI)
$Bumitama Agri(P8Z.SI)
$UOB(U11.SI)
$Yongnam(AXB.SI)
$SingPost(S08.SI)
$PropNex(OYY.SI)
$Frasers Property(TQ5.SI)

https://diyquantfund.blogspot.com/2019/04/...

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