Sharing TTI's US portfolio.

Bausch Health (BHC) - Core position. Having held for about 2yrs +, it hasn't been much of a winner. YTD's performance is great though, as I've set up straddles. Not exactly pure long, i.e. a combination of both long and short options. Currently, the best position in my portfolio to straddle.

Wirecard (WDI) - Listed in Frankfort exchange. One of the latest member of the DAX, it's a heavyweight. A contrarian position, continued adding as the markets assigned an Armageddon valuation. Kinda pricey at forward PE 40+ (assuming EPS of 3.6 euros conservatively). Heavily long.

VXXB - VIX derivative. Yet another neither long nor short. Position is initiated by both long and short straddle options. I'm swinging towards accumulating a position by selling more close to the money puts. More of an insurance policy than anything else. Small - moderate position.

Diebold (DBD) - Puny position. Long.

General Electric (GE) - Was long, took profit. Now a puny position. Long.

Facebook (FB) - Took profit, now a small position. Straddling both long and short via options again. So... neutral I guess. Moderate position size.

CenturyLink (CTL) - Large position. Long. TTI's biggest loser thus far this year. Damnit, imagine no CTL.... ROI this yr would totally dominate. Not many option positions here, just a direct equity stake.
Management cut dividend despite repeatedly defending it. TTI got conned here, FCF is able to support dividends (not that I'm a fan of dividends), yet the company cut it to pay down debt faster. Ironically, putting aside the share price drop, it's good for non-US shareholders since we'd much prefer allocating capital to investments or cutting debt to avoid the witholding tax.
Looking forward to next quarter showing improvement in margins and revenue. Rationale for drop in revenue given by management, is to cut legacy contracts that add to revenue, but are unprofitable or have too low margins.

GDS Holdings (GDS) - Moderate position. Short.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) - Yet another long term position, having held CHK for just over 4 years now. Neither long nor short, having sold both long and short straddles. Large position size.

Nike (NKE) - Moderate position size. Long.

Vale (VALE) - Small position size. Long.

Stamp.com (STMP) - Having taken profit, still own a small long position via options, waiting for them to expire.

Visa (V) - Short. Small position.

Apple (AAPL) - Short. Small position.

Wells Fargo (WFC) - Puny long position.

Micron Tech (MU) - Short. Small position

Disney (DIS) - Short. Small position

S&P ETF (SPY) - Short. Small position.

Stanley Decker (SWK) - Short. Moderate position.

Mylan (MYL) - Small long position.

Boeing (BA) - New short position. Moderate position. Just added yesterday, even without the disasters, the shares were looking pricey.

Eventbrite (EB) - New short position. Newly listed, unprofitable and has never been profitable. Revenue base is expanding for sure, but margins are dipping, and FCF just turned negative in FY18. On top of that, Q1 2019 guidance is poor. Integration with ticketfly acquisition is terrible. Small position but looking to add to the shorts by selling naked calls, and possibly short selling.

Other stuff on my watchlist:
Broadcom (AVGO)
Johnson x 2 (JNJ)
Corcept Therapeutics (CORT)
Herbalife (HLF)
Pinduoduo (PDD)
Kraft (KHC)

Taking a break from analyzing more companies. Too confusing.
Sometimes, I forget what I just read 2 hrs ago... or mix up the numbers with another company's.

Nett effect of these positions, most of which are initiated via options is a cool 32% ROI YTD.
S&P's ROI YTD in comparison is a respectable 11%.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2490/sp-500-yt...

Since the start of the year, I've modified by taking profit on the usual big names that constitute part of the indices (mainly S&P), in a bid to pull away and outperform the market.
This is working thus far, as seen in the chart below.
On days when the markets are down, the blue line (TTI's portfolio) either drops more gently, or more recently, pulls away by going up strongly.

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42 comments
jpeg

how did u analyse that acquisition of ticketfly is bad for Eventbrite?

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @jpeg : Its somewhere in the CC trAnscript, in reply to an analyst qn.
Im short EB but thats only by selling naked calls.
Thus far everythings working out.
Another couple of weeks n id pocket several grand in realized gains here

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hanhsiangwong

wirecard gained 20% thanks TTI

ThumbTackInvestor

Hmmmmm
I'm sure hoping that "there's no smoke without a fire"...

Look at that erection and that volume spike!

Smallcapasia

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : WOW damn power erection

hanhsiangwong

Product we use everyday by wirecard.

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @hanhsiangwong : Yup.
This, and Ingenico, dominate in SG.

raymondfoo

Hi TTI, did you manage to close your sell put option on wirecard? There seems to be a downward pressure.

raymondfoo

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : After the negative fade, it’s back to the growth story.

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ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @XueRen_Sharen : These are shares witheld and sold by CTL to pay for the taxes for the vesting of restricted stock awarded to Storey.
So... it's not Storey selling actually.

If u are familiar with US companies, it's actually common practice after Q4 when management is awarded restricted stock as part of their comp.

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XueRen_Sharen

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/c...

How to interpret this news for century link? good news, bad news or neutral?

Smallcapasia

Impressive portfolio doctor!

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @Smallcapasia : Thank u
Remains to be seen how profitable it is.

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