Although the STI did no go up much (<2%) for the month of February, my portfolio performed much better (+11%) this month thanks to the following counters:
$AEM(AWX.SI)
$Sunpower(5GD.SI)
$Accordia Golf Tr(ADQU.SI)
$Silverlake Axis(5CP.SI)
$Sasseur Reit(CRPU.SI)
$Oxley(5UX.SI)

My conviction and patience have paid off. Even Oxley which have been on the downtrend for so long has finally started to move up, however it’s still underwater for me. Last week I took 23% profit for AGT. Today, I sold all my Silverlake shares at 31% profit. I also sold 20% of my AEM share at 33% profit. And for Sunpower, my average price is 0.44 and I will sell my 2nd batch after the results release tomorrow.
As for Sasseur Reit, I will be keeping them for now. It is still CD with a 3.541c dividend coming up. I believe their outlet sales can continue to grow and it should be able to payout a dividend yield of at least 8.5% after XD.
I first bought Sasseur reit 5 months ago. I did not buy much as there is no track record and the malls are in China, it will be difficult to monitor how there are doing. However I believe in their business model and even added more during the recent price drop before the results release. The results were better than expected and it proves that the Outlets model is resilient to online shopping and even the trade war! The 4Q DPU is 28% above forecast. This is despite the fall in the RMB/SGD exchange rate. The reason for the good performance is that the 4Q is historically the period with the highest sales and also that they no longer have to keep reserves in case of poor performance. This REIT is difficult to understand and is not for everyone, please see my previous post if you want to know more: https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1019661

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gagnant76

You are selling most of your holdings, did not buy others? So holding onto more cash?

shirleytoong

Reply to @gagnant76 : this morning I tot could make it to $116 being so strong yesterday-so much hype on the signing US -NK

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aero73

Sunpower really power sia.......

christophertan0

Congrats bro! Huat ah!!

Pizzaprata

Reply to @christophertan0 : Thanks. You also did well this month!


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$KSH(ER0.SI) 2019 AGM Highlights

Investors of KSH and their JV partners would be happy to know that the KSH Executive Chairman Choo Chee Onn confirmed the official launch date of Oct 2019 for the massive 5.3 million sqm Gaobeidian Project at the company’s AGM last Friday. The project launch had been delayed a couple of times, first due to Beijing’s cooling measures which requires the homes construction to be 30% completed before sales can start and delayed again last October due to “the uncertainties caused by the trade war”. Mr Choo, who just came back from China revealed that the main reason for the delay was the additional cooling measures which restricted the sales to local residents only which means that those from Beijing cannot buy. The local government has eased these restrictions and now non-locals will have to pay social security for 3 years to be eligible to purchase in Gaobeidian.
Even with this condition, the JV company is confident enough to launch the first 100,000 sqm, about 820 units at a price of RMB 8,000 per sqm. They will quickly release more units once 50% of the units are sold. Although the launch price is a far cry from the RMB 20,000 psqm in nearby Baoding after news of the Xiong’an SEZ was released, the Gross Margin is a respectable 50% as their cost is around RMB 4,000 psqm.
Another piece of interesting info that the Chairman revealed is that the long term plan for their 13 overseas hotel properties is to form a Reit. Looks like everyone is jumping into the Reit wagon. However it’s a long time coming as 6 of the properties are still under development and they still have to wait for the income to stabilise first. They will also be adding more hotels in the meantime.
Together with the good sales of their Singapore development projects, the prospects of KSH is looking very bright however there will be much pain before gain. Due to the new financial reporting standards; for residential developments all interest expenses will have to be expensed instead of being capitalised previously. This would massively impact the profitability of KSH and their JV partners as their projects are only at the start of construction but have taken huge loans to purchase the land, etc. I expect their profits to be impacted for the next one year at least. Not a problem if you are a long term investor. Vested 50k shares, please DYODD.

$Oxley(5UX.SI) ,$Lian Beng(L03.SI) $SLB Dev(1J0.SI) ,$Heeton(5DP.SI)

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Expiry:
Target Price
$1.5
(+32.74%)
NOW:

Nice Q2 results from $AEM(AWX.SI). The record revenue and profits is due to their key customer Intel rolling out their 10nm processors. I believe Intel will continue ramping up their 10nm processors due to yesterday's product release by AMD, see link: https://venturebeat.com/2019/08/07/amd-ceo...
For the first time in history AMD's server processors are faster than Intel's. This is critical as the server chips are the most profitable for Intel and they totally dominate the market with a 95% market share. Intel will want to snatch back the crown.
Currently Intel is rolling out their 10nm chips for Laptops for delivery for the holiday season end of this year. As they having serious yield problems, they are still producing the 14nm chips hence the need for more handlers from AEM. From Intel's April 2019 Investor Day Slide below, they plan to produce 10nm server chips from 1H2020. However AMD's product release yesterday will place much pressure on Intel to move this schedule forward regardless of the yields to snatch back the lead from AMD.
Another good news is that AEM's MEMs testing division, Afore has received an initial order from the world's larget MEMs sensor supplier. I mentioned this possibility in my previous post here https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1390601
Please DYODD. Vested 210k shares in AEM and 300 shares in AMD.

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Managed to get 30k shares of $Accordia Golf Tr(ADQU.SI) today at 0.53. The share price have been dropping since the disappointing 4Q Mar'19 results, please read my previous post. Was queuing @0.50 for a long time but decided to increase my buy price to 0.53 this week as I am expecting good results in their next earnings release. If you see the latest monthly report (attached), there is an increase of 3% in the number of players for April to June Quarter. If you have been monitoring the financial results of AGT, you will know that their expenses are fairly constant at 11 billion Yen each quarter irrespective of the number of players. That's one reason why the performance of AGT fluctuates greatly. Therefore I expect the Income available for Distribution to be better than the 1.66 billion Yen for the same quarter last year. A distribution of 1.66 billion Yen should give a DPU of 1.85 cents. The Yen/SGD exchange rate is also more favourable currently. Furthermore there is no refinancing fee cost this year unlike last year.
Please take note that AGT has been known for throwing up surprises like the huge repayment of membership deposits in 1H2017 so my estimates may be way out but so far the deposit refunds have been pretty stable. Please DYODD.

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Attachment(s):

Disappointing 4Q results from $Accordia Golf Tr(ADQU.SI) and I am not talking about the impairments. The impairments are non cash items so I am not bothered about them. But it does raises ones eyebrows that the sponsors dumped the Golf courses to the Trust at a whopping 29% above the market valuation during the IPO. Another reason not to participate in IPOs.
I am more concerned about the low Distributable Income Available for Shareholders of 194m yen as compared with 493m yen for the same period last year. The thing is this year the weather was much better than last year which had an abnormally cold winter. There were 12.7% more golf players this year than last so what happened to the cash flow?
First the top line, the revenue for the quarter was just 7.5% more than last year which means that the revenue per golf player is dropping which is the first concern. The revenue was also affected by lower membership fees which was 178m yen lower than last year. This is the second concern as although there are more players, they are not committed enough to join as members.
The revenue is still higher than last year and after all the expenses and adjustments, the net increase in cash this year is 1,429m yen which is much higher than last year's 776m yen. The reason for the low distribution for this quarter is due to the high Reserves (see attached) 1,235m this year as compared to 283m last year. If you look at the breakdown of the Reserves: 559m withholding tax, 244m property tax, 278m trust operations and unwinding of 255m upfront fee previously reserved. There is no explanation why these reserves are so high this quarter. I know the last item is the one-off refinancing upfront fee which was deferred from the 2Q. If you take a look at past quarterly results, it looks like the management use the Reserves to adjust the distribution amount to their liking. Anyway if the Reserves are negative this year, it may be positive next year as after all these are reserves of cash which belongs to the shareholders. So the actions of a shitty management have once again provided us an opportunity to accumulate shares. I will wait until after XD as the share price almost always will fall by more than the dividend amount although this time it will probably not hit my previous entry price of 49 cents.

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After attending the $AEM(AWX.SI) AGM yesterday, I see 4 potential positive catalyst and one negative news for the stock price. First the positives:
The increase in sales is due to Intel’s decision to rollout their 10nm chips earlier. Those who follow Intel’s progress on 10nm will know that Intel is facing huge problems with 10nm. The yields are low which means more testing is required to ensure reliability. Furthermore Intel has no confidence on their 10nm chips so they continue to produce their 14nm processors, hence the need for new handlers from AEM. Therefore the high sales orders are expected to continue for this year at least in my opinion.
AEM shipped the first prototype to the new memory customer in Feb’19. The prototype is now under Qualifications approval by the customer. Once approved which is expected in the next couple of months, commercial deliveries will start. I believe this is a huge potential as volume of memory chips are huge as compared with processors and this success may trigger other memory chips manufacturers to come on board.
Huawei has accepted AEM’s solution and the first delivery will be in Jun’19. This tester is for testing the short reach cable links for the 5G network which operates at speeds of 100Gbps. It was Huawei that approached AEM to come out with a solution as there are currently no portable testers. This tester will enable Huawei to use the cheaper Multimode Fibre Optic cable for the 5G network. As Huawei will be aggressively rolling out it’s 5G network in China, this is another big potential customer. On top of this, AEM’s handheld cable tester, TestPro which was launched last year has won several awards. This recognition and the approval of network cable manufacturers on the use of AEM’s tester to make claims will enable AEM to penetrate the market for network cable testers currently dominated by Fluke Networks.
AEM’s MEMS tester division, Afore is a pioneer in WLP (Wafer Level Packaging) MEMS testing. MEMS with WLP are much smaller 1x1mm compared with 4x4mm normal MEMS. Currently the world’s largest MEMS sensor manufacturer in the world is conducting qualifications on Afore’s testers. Hopefully there will be good results from this.
Finally Novoflex which is 21% owned by AEM, has received authorization from MasterCard and Visa for their customized Smart Cards. Novoflex’s printed chip technology is not only cheaper but more secure as the chip cannot be removed unlike current Smart Carts. They are securing pilot testing with several banks globally with expected roll out by end of this year. As this is not AEM’s core business, most likely the business will be sold for a good profit.
As for the negative news, the management confirmed that there will an impact from Intel’s withdrawal from the 5G Modem business. As currently Intel is still producing 4G Modems, the impact will not be felt yet. The impact will also be mitigated as although the volumes are large the testing time of modems are much shorter than processors. Furthermore as modems are not part of Intel’s core business, some of the testing are outsourced to assembly and test companies. These companies do not use AEM’s handlers. My concern is that as Intel’s 4G modem performance is inferior to Qualcomm’s modems, Apple may switch from Intel to Qualcomm earlier, before the 5G phones are released.
There are also other technologies which AEM are working on but I will not mention here as those will take a longer time to bear fruits. Please see the attached pdf for the AGM presentation. I foresee a bright future for AEM. Please DYODD, vested 190k shares.

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