Although the STI did no go up much (<2%) for the month of February, my portfolio performed much better (+11%) this month thanks to the following counters:
$AEM(AWX.SI)
$Sunpower(5GD.SI)
$Accordia Golf Tr(ADQU.SI)
$Silverlake Axis(5CP.SI)
$Sasseur Reit(CRPU.SI)
$Oxley(5UX.SI)

My conviction and patience have paid off. Even Oxley which have been on the downtrend for so long has finally started to move up, however it’s still underwater for me. Last week I took 23% profit for AGT. Today, I sold all my Silverlake shares at 31% profit. I also sold 20% of my AEM share at 33% profit. And for Sunpower, my average price is 0.44 and I will sell my 2nd batch after the results release tomorrow.
As for Sasseur Reit, I will be keeping them for now. It is still CD with a 3.541c dividend coming up. I believe their outlet sales can continue to grow and it should be able to payout a dividend yield of at least 8.5% after XD.
I first bought Sasseur reit 5 months ago. I did not buy much as there is no track record and the malls are in China, it will be difficult to monitor how there are doing. However I believe in their business model and even added more during the recent price drop before the results release. The results were better than expected and it proves that the Outlets model is resilient to online shopping and even the trade war! The 4Q DPU is 28% above forecast. This is despite the fall in the RMB/SGD exchange rate. The reason for the good performance is that the 4Q is historically the period with the highest sales and also that they no longer have to keep reserves in case of poor performance. This REIT is difficult to understand and is not for everyone, please see my previous post if you want to know more: https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1019661

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gagnant76

You are selling most of your holdings, did not buy others? So holding onto more cash?

shirleytoong

Reply to @gagnant76 : this morning I tot could make it to $116 being so strong yesterday-so much hype on the signing US -NK

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aero73

Sunpower really power sia.......

christophertan0

Congrats bro! Huat ah!!

Pizzaprata

Reply to @christophertan0 : Thanks. You also did well this month!


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After attending the $AEM(AWX.SI) AGM yesterday, I see 4 potential positive catalyst and one negative news for the stock price. First the positives:
The increase in sales is due to Intel’s decision to rollout their 10nm chips earlier. Those who follow Intel’s progress on 10nm will know that Intel is facing huge problems with 10nm. The yields are low which means more testing is required to ensure reliability. Furthermore Intel has no confidence on their 10nm chips so they continue to produce their 14nm processors, hence the need for new handlers from AEM. Therefore the high sales orders are expected to continue for this year at least in my opinion.
AEM shipped the first prototype to the new memory customer in Feb’19. The prototype is now under Qualifications approval by the customer. Once approved which is expected in the next couple of months, commercial deliveries will start. I believe this is a huge potential as volume of memory chips are huge as compared with processors and this success may trigger other memory chips manufacturers to come on board.
Huawei has accepted AEM’s solution and the first delivery will be in Jun’19. This tester is for testing the short reach cable links for the 5G network which operates at speeds of 100Gbps. It was Huawei that approached AEM to come out with a solution as there are currently no portable testers. This tester will enable Huawei to use the cheaper Multimode Fibre Optic cable for the 5G network. As Huawei will be aggressively rolling out it’s 5G network in China, this is another big potential customer. On top of this, AEM’s handheld cable tester, TestPro which was launched last year has won several awards. This recognition and the approval of network cable manufacturers on the use of AEM’s tester to make claims will enable AEM to penetrate the market for network cable testers currently dominated by Fluke Networks.
AEM’s MEMS tester division, Afore is a pioneer in WLP (Wafer Level Packaging) MEMS testing. MEMS with WLP are much smaller 1x1mm compared with 4x4mm normal MEMS. Currently the world’s largest MEMS sensor manufacturer in the world is conducting qualifications on Afore’s testers. Hopefully there will be good results from this.
Finally Novoflex which is 21% owned by AEM, has received authorization from MasterCard and Visa for their customized Smart Cards. Novoflex’s printed chip technology is not only cheaper but more secure as the chip cannot be removed unlike current Smart Carts. They are securing pilot testing with several banks globally with expected roll out by end of this year. As this is not AEM’s core business, most likely the business will be sold for a good profit.
As for the negative news, the management confirmed that there will an impact from Intel’s withdrawal from the 5G Modem business. As currently Intel is still producing 4G Modems, the impact will not be felt yet. The impact will also be mitigated as although the volumes are large the testing time of modems are much shorter than processors. Furthermore as modems are not part of Intel’s core business, some of the testing are outsourced to assembly and test companies. These companies do not use AEM’s handlers. My concern is that as Intel’s 4G modem performance is inferior to Qualcomm’s modems, Apple may switch from Intel to Qualcomm earlier, before the 5G phones are released.
There are also other technologies which AEM are working on but I will not mention here as those will take a longer time to bear fruits. Please see the attached pdf for the AGM presentation. I foresee a bright future for AEM. Please DYODD, vested 190k shares.

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$Sasseur Reit(CRPU.SI) hit it's IPO price of 0.80 today after CIMB issued a Buy call yesterday. Sold 15k shares as it hit 20% above my average price. Still holding 20k shares as I like their business model. See my previous post https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1019661
Another reason I took profit is that I am concerned that some investors may think that last quarter's DPU of 1.99 (28% above forecast) will be the norm. The increase was mainly due to the company no longer have to keep Statutory Reserves and lower taxes. So some new shareholders may be disappointed with the upcoming results and sell. Furthermore now that the share price is higher, there might be a Rights Issue coming as the sponsor has a pipeline of properties waiting. If there is one, hopefully it will be DPU accretive Expect a DPU of 6.2 cents this year which would yield 7.75% at current price which is decent but might not be enough for some to buy a S-chip. Please DYODD

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Sold 20k shares $Accordia Golf Tr(ADQU.SI) @0.605 which I bought @0.49. I think it is still possible to go up further but my rule is that I will take profit if it hits 2 years worth of dividends. The logic is that I will be able to buy it at a better price in the next two years. This is especially true for this stock which performance depends literally on the weather. The reason why the stock price has been climbing is that Japan has been having good weather since October and the number of players have been increased which is why the 3rd Quarter (Oct-Dec2018) results were very good The advantage of investing in Accordia is that they issue monthly reports on the number of players on their golf courses. As their expenses are fairly constant at about 11 billion Yen per quarter, the number of players have significant impact on the performance which you should monitor closely if you are invested.
However there is one item which we cannot predict which is the repayment of members deposit. This item can affect cash flows greatly as the total deposits is around 10 billion Yen. Fortunately the 1.1 billion Yen repayment in the 2nd Quarter last FY seems to be an anomaly and the refunds have been 250 million Yen or less per quarter for the past one year.
Another reason I sold is the poor management which I have talked about before, see my previous post: https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1000750
This time they did not even hedge last quarter's distribution, they reported the amount available for distribution which is 1.72 billion yen without mentioning the DPU. Previously they do not hedge long term but they hedge for the quarter that would be paid in the later half of the FY. Yen has been dropping the past month and the DPU could be impacted. Of course the Yen could appreciate but the management does not understand that shareholders prefer a stable DPU.

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Sold 20k $Sunpower(5GD.SI) shares @0.515 which is 17% above my average price. Although I am confident that it can go higher after the results release, the price now is more than 50% above my last acquisition price. Never wrong to take some profits. See https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1202244.
Will sell another 40k share when results released and keep balance 40k for long term. Please DYODD and always have a plan.

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Added 30k shares of $Sunpower(5GD.SI) @0.325 to bring my total holdings to 100k shares. Expecting good results for the 4Q2018 due to the following:
 The continued ramp-up of GI projects, which will include:
a) Quanjiao and Lianshui Projects will continued to secure new customers driven by the
closure of small “dirty” boilers,
b) Full-quarter electricity revenue to be contributed by the Changrun Project, and
c) Additional revenue from providing heating during winter by Xinyuan Plant.
 Full quarterly contributions from Yongxing Plant, which will benefit from higher seasonal
activities in 4Q.
 The M&S segment is expected to benefit from a record order book of RMB2.2 billion and usually
higher deliveries of work-in-progress products in Q4.
At the recent EGM, the executive director Mr Ma could not say anything on the performance but his big smile practically confirmed the good performance. The shares are severely undervalued until the company have started share buy backs. The money for share buy backs would have otherwise been used for it's aggressive GI business expansion.
Mr Ma also confirmed that it's GI business customers are not affected by the trade war and the steam consumption has in fact increased due to the cold weather.
Although the share price have continued falling, I am confident of Sunpower's new GI business. It is a recurring income and there are practically no receivables so the cash flow would improve from here. For more info please see my previous post: https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1009175
Please DYODD

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