Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : Agreed. Not trying to be gloofing when some one is shivering out there. But cold winter is what we need. But i suspect we need more that a temporary cold draft to push up price. Indo export is lower current month, they can easily up the production to meet prc demand. I guess they are alot of spare coal laying around. Can we have some tightening of natural gas supply also ;)
Reply to @wenyou : recovered slightly to around USD35/mt
But still weak.
I don't have "such confidence".
It's still a reasonable position size for me, relative to my portfolio size.
My thesis is that quoted coal prices will recover after the end of this month, when china NDRC's quota is "reset".
Also, each time they put in such measures, there's always some collateral impact, or impact that'd appear sometime down the road.
Already now, some of the coastal power producers are starting to buy forward coal contracts for delivery in 2019.
I've also traded around some of my positions for some additional small profits because I think it'd be fairly stable without any major news from now to end 2018.
Cold weather gripping China. https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/07/asia/ic...
Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : Agreed. Not trying to be gloofing when some one is shivering out there. But cold winter is what we need. But i suspect we need more that a temporary cold draft to push up price. Indo export is lower current month, they can easily up the production to meet prc demand. I guess they are alot of spare coal laying around. Can we have some tightening of natural gas supply also ;)
Added 20k at 0.17
Reply to @christophertan0 : That’s the risk we have to take! Cheers bro!
So red.
So scary.
So...
Reply to @wenyou : recovered slightly to around USD35/mt
But still weak.
I don't have "such confidence".
It's still a reasonable position size for me, relative to my portfolio size.
My thesis is that quoted coal prices will recover after the end of this month, when china NDRC's quota is "reset".
Also, each time they put in such measures, there's always some collateral impact, or impact that'd appear sometime down the road.
Already now, some of the coastal power producers are starting to buy forward coal contracts for delivery in 2019.
I've also traded around some of my positions for some additional small profits because I think it'd be fairly stable without any major news from now to end 2018.