ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @gagnant76 : yea, they've stocked up.
With bitter cold, they'd have to burn more as the populace cranks up their heating.
In the rural areas, they burn coal in heating stoves.
In the cities like Beijing, the buildings are heated internally.
There's a system of piping within the walls of the building with heated air running through it, so if it's cold, the power plants have to burn more coal to provide the heating for the building.
More coal burn means the stockpiles run down more rapidly, which also means that NDRC can ban all they want for the rest of 2018, but once stockpiles run thin, they'd have to lift import quotas and all this will just create pent up demand.
It has happened before already actually.
China don't really implement their macro policies very efficiently.
Main reason is that whoever decides at the top, sets very broad goals to achieve, and at the municipal or provincial level, the execution is up to the local officials.

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BakChorMee

Reply to @christophertan0 : That’s the risk we have to take! Cheers bro!

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ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @wenyou : recovered slightly to around USD35/mt
But still weak.
I don't have "such confidence".
It's still a reasonable position size for me, relative to my portfolio size.
My thesis is that quoted coal prices will recover after the end of this month, when china NDRC's quota is "reset".
Also, each time they put in such measures, there's always some collateral impact, or impact that'd appear sometime down the road.
Already now, some of the coastal power producers are starting to buy forward coal contracts for delivery in 2019.
I've also traded around some of my positions for some additional small profits because I think it'd be fairly stable without any major news from now to end 2018.

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