Pizzaprata

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : It's more of a reminder for myself as I am feeling happy. Although the rally has lasted for 3 days, it's only today that my counters really move. I am heavy on Tech, property and some China stocks.
It's unlikely to have deployed everything so early, the correction has only been about one month. For myself, I spend another $50k today after I received the news you posted from Bloomberg this morning.

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Zumou80

earnings risk will be more evident next year. this trade tension impact is gradually being felt in real economy just as china's tightening also takes hold. global supply chains have to move in any case.. ASEAN/Mexico/South Asia as well could be interesting hunting grounds. I know everyone is hot on the US now.. but after a sustained 10Y outperformance, every tom, dick & harry is now harping about how good the US is.

The US will also be the key market impacted by increased cost of imports + increased cost of labour + rising rates. There will be many reasons to poo poo and go long term (like how i felt about the Chinese big internet names earlier this year - look through should be fine) but corrections can take place simply cuz multiple ppl have gotten in earlier than you and are rushing to take profits (overshooting slowdown in earnings or increase in regulatory risk etc). US is still the most liquid and open market - if you have the time horizon and own the right stocks, you will still be fine but time horizon is critical.

Europe is actually getting interesting though if you can accept a tail risk of Italian default (feel its low probability since EU's reason for existence is more political/strategic than economic).

I guess its times like this (when stocks are falling) that life gets more interesting as more opportunities pop up, which contributes to the feeling that the warchest is never enough..

Zumou80

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : dont think so.. earnings slowdown leads to recession and a correction but not a crash. as you said, it comes when least expected and usually starts in an unexpected area. Will it be risk parity funds this time round? i also dont know. China has stepped in to prevent a repeat of Russia 2008 where margin unwinds froze and crashed the stock market. Bond yields don't seem to be pricing in anything scary either. yields are still low relative to history though so there is cause for concern.. headache is really how to spread out the use of the warchest. over 1 month, 3 mths or a year..

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Orchid99

enjoy reading your reflection...i can sense your calm in the midst of fear and panic...

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @Zumou80 : yep.
Most of my new positions are already up by over 10%, whereas most of the previous existing positions have already recovered to pre-Oct levels.
https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1092253

that's why I'm not an advocate of going all cash according to vagaries of the market

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