After a looooong run on a Sunday... I usually become zombie like and gotta chill here without moving a muscle for an hour, just people watching.
There’s a swing so make an educated guess where this is....
Anyway, here are TTI thoughts in the midst of the carnage the past week.
Disclaimers first:
- I’m just chilling n typing on mobile anything that comes to mind, no reference to any individuals.
- These r my genuine thoughts, I mean them, but I don’t profess to know all the answers either.
- Everything that I write can be substantiated. I don’t write shit like “wow hit my TP of $100000!!! I huated a trillion dollars! Quick congratulate me! Quick quick! (Or the like of it)”
- I don’t do too many fancy things. Very simple things in fact. U may laugh at TTI’s logic, but it works and over time, I’m pretty good at what I do, whether In investing or other stuff in real life.
- Pls do me a favor... comment if you like but DONT like this post Cos sometimes, IN goes n compile some of these more popular posts n sends it out in an email. Zzzzz. I don’t fancy my thoughts blasted out to random ppl in an email.
Can have a discussion here n that’s it.
There r ppl who actually know my identity irl so yea please.
@investingnote pls don’t, can?

1) CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

Now, this is actually one of the most important things. Some time ago, a few months ago I think, I had a short convo here with @theintelligentinvestor, prob one of the few real investors here with a long term track record. I must’ve misunderstood him Cos I tot he said he’d prefer to be vested 100% of the time, which I do not agree with at all. Anyway, his style, no matter how efficient, won’t be popular cos u guys want excitement, not the ROI.
Anyhow, with the carnage in the past 2 weeks, I think there’s no doubt how important having capital on standby is.
In the midst of the carnage, I’m really chilling Cos as of now, I’ve approximately $200k worth of bullets to deploy if I want to. Like I said, I m not scared of a recession... I’m scared of a recession and having no capital.
Or as the saying goes “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”
So a capital buffer is crucial
3 weeks ago, this $200k is burning a hole in my pocket. Yes yes, can u guys just imagine... if this $200k is put in some REIT.... say a 5% yield only.....
yet I’ve kept it completely liquid.
EVEN THEN, now.. $200k feels too little. It’s always like this. Lol.

2) TIMING THE MARKET
OK, to each his own, so maybe only 30% will agree with me whilst the rest have varying degrees of disagreement.
IMO, liquidating now is dumb.
Yup. Going cash NOW... is exactly what we’ve always said we won’t be doing!
Sure, if this becomes a full blown crisis, then maybe u look smart. If we flatline or recover from here.... you’re screwed.
And even if we go further down from here THEN recovers.... chances r, you’d still b screwed Cos you won’t be buying in n instead, “watch first and see how”
( I never understand wad that means. Watch what exactly? And see How means wad?)
Finally, don’t just take an opinion as the truth.
Look at the data on market timing. Very few get it right consistently. Add in to that, the role of luck, n u know u just can’t do it.
Yet people still try
Guess that’s how toto works.
Also, consider this: there are no fund managers I know, TA or FA or whatever, who swing to extremes. That is, fully vested n all cash.
Cos it’s not realistic anyway when your capital size gets larger.

3) FREE CASHFLOW!!
Long time readers of TTI would know I’m a massive fan of consistent, regular FCF positive companies. It’s like backwardation in the Commodities market: an invisible force that pushes you up every month without requiring an active effort.
And I try to replicate that in my daily life. I don’t write about Simi saving more la, wad change your lifestyle la, Simi how to live on a budget etc Cos... well, firstly, it’s subjective n based on your situation. For eg, u got a kid or 2, vs u r single, it’s completely different. Secondly, I don’t think life is meant to be endured. It’s meant to b savored. By that, I mean that I’d rather focus on the “top line” aka revenue, than the “expenses”. Thirdly... tbh, to me, it’s very childish n very amateurish to talk about Simi savings. I mean, for God’s sake, I’m assuming everyone here is an adult. If you’re above 12 n u need to read an article to tell u that in life, u need to produce more than u consume, and how to go about doing that.....
U must b kinda dumb.... (or Ang moh, aside from the Germans that is) LOLOLOL

In my personal life, I’ve managed to build a few streams of income aside from investing. Of course, like everyone else, there’s one main income, n the rest r the desserts. The sums I get are variable, and in fact tbh, if u ask me what’s my monthly income, I’m not too sure. (I know annual of course) I only know there’s always money when I need it, n I don’t need too much anyway.

And THIS, ties in nicely with the 1st point. If u don’t have the capital now... trying to accumulate now is... a bit too late. But if you’re at least FCF positive...
at least it’s a matter of time before you can build up your warchest.
That’s why, instead of focusing on the small stuff n trying to pinch on the little things, TTI suggests that we all look at the top line. Do the unpopular and difficult stuff to increase your FCF.
In my experience, u can increasing your savings IMMEDIATELY, but increasing your FCF takes a long term plan and takes years to execute before u see the results.
But it’s way better. Don’t try to do too many stuff... do only a few things but do it very well. It can be simple stuff. If u can do complex stuff better than everyone else... you’d b xtremely wealthy.

4) KEEP BUSY
In times of carnage... the best thing to do is stick to what your philosophy is when you thought of it in calmer times. But it’s difficult Cos now, your hormones r raging n the fear center in your cerebral cortex is in hyperdrive.
Forget about the markets
The best way to do this is to keep busy. That’s why I don’t really like the idea of co scantly trying to strive for “retirement”
I really think it’s sibei ironic that the richest and most successful people I know, die die won’t retire until the powers up there put them into the ground, whereas their underlings working a dead end job under them r always the ones keeping tab and dreaming of FIRE.
Come on, don’t u guys see it too? It’s everywhere. Isn’t it ironic?
It’s like u don’t want it, it will come to u. U want it... it either doesn’t come to u or comes to u in an arduous way n even then, at a pathetically low level.
That’s the irony of life. Maybe if someone manages to take over the world and dictates that ok, all u rich n successful guys who don’t wanna retire, give all your wealth to losers trying to, then everyone is happy in the world. Aka communist style. Too bad it’s not gg to happen in our lifetime.

Ok it’s starting to drizzle so... that’s it. Bye.

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25 likes
83 comments
Pizzaprata

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : It's more of a reminder for myself as I am feeling happy. Although the rally has lasted for 3 days, it's only today that my counters really move. I am heavy on Tech, property and some China stocks.
It's unlikely to have deployed everything so early, the correction has only been about one month. For myself, I spend another $50k today after I received the news you posted from Bloomberg this morning.

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Zumou80

earnings risk will be more evident next year. this trade tension impact is gradually being felt in real economy just as china's tightening also takes hold. global supply chains have to move in any case.. ASEAN/Mexico/South Asia as well could be interesting hunting grounds. I know everyone is hot on the US now.. but after a sustained 10Y outperformance, every tom, dick & harry is now harping about how good the US is.

The US will also be the key market impacted by increased cost of imports + increased cost of labour + rising rates. There will be many reasons to poo poo and go long term (like how i felt about the Chinese big internet names earlier this year - look through should be fine) but corrections can take place simply cuz multiple ppl have gotten in earlier than you and are rushing to take profits (overshooting slowdown in earnings or increase in regulatory risk etc). US is still the most liquid and open market - if you have the time horizon and own the right stocks, you will still be fine but time horizon is critical.

Europe is actually getting interesting though if you can accept a tail risk of Italian default (feel its low probability since EU's reason for existence is more political/strategic than economic).

I guess its times like this (when stocks are falling) that life gets more interesting as more opportunities pop up, which contributes to the feeling that the warchest is never enough..

Zumou80

Reply to @ThumbTackInvestor : dont think so.. earnings slowdown leads to recession and a correction but not a crash. as you said, it comes when least expected and usually starts in an unexpected area. Will it be risk parity funds this time round? i also dont know. China has stepped in to prevent a repeat of Russia 2008 where margin unwinds froze and crashed the stock market. Bond yields don't seem to be pricing in anything scary either. yields are still low relative to history though so there is cause for concern.. headache is really how to spread out the use of the warchest. over 1 month, 3 mths or a year..

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Master_GongJiaowei

become anti-fragile!!

evelow

enjoy reading your reflection...i can sense your calm in the midst of fear and panic...

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @Zumou80 : yep.
Most of my new positions are already up by over 10%, whereas most of the previous existing positions have already recovered to pre-Oct levels.
https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1092253

that's why I'm not an advocate of going all cash according to vagaries of the market

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InvestingNote

ok TTI, noted. this post will not go into our weekly newsletter.

alansmith

On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for all short term investors drops to zero

In 10 years, no one will even remember this correction

But if you sold at the bottom, you will one of few to remember this lesson

TLDR; btfd !

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @alansmith : Lol u place too much faith.....
Those who sold at the bottom... may actually still not remember

LFO

OK not liking this post as requested.

Agree not time to liquidate. Typically too fast to TP but to slow to cut loss. Discipline is important.

Will wait out but won't enter now per se.

Thanks for the post.

clim

Nice sharing.

And i help by not clicking like, but I just cant stop thinking, wouldn't your identity be known after next year IPO? hahaha

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @clim : Concentration risk
Too much of a good thing is bad.
Haha

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wellhandy

I kinda failed today at bumping up the lemon’s post which kinda holds similar perspective to point 3.

ThumbTackInvestor

Reply to @wellhandy : point 3 is quite long lei. Which part?
Don't think I've seen that post.

WolfOfHougangStreet

Still gonna like this post. And all your future posts from now on. Hahahahaha!!

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