After a looooong run on a Sunday... I usually become zombie like and gotta chill here without moving a muscle for an hour, just people watching.
There’s a swing so make an educated guess where this is....
Anyway, here are TTI thoughts in the midst of the carnage the past week.
- I’m just chilling n typing on mobile anything that comes to mind, no reference to any individuals.
- These r my genuine thoughts, I mean them, but I don’t profess to know all the answers either.
- Everything that I write can be substantiated. I don’t write shit like “wow hit my TP of $100000!!! I huated a trillion dollars! Quick congratulate me! Quick quick! (Or the like of it)”
- I don’t do too many fancy things. Very simple things in fact. U may laugh at TTI’s logic, but it works and over time, I’m pretty good at what I do, whether In investing or other stuff in real life.
- Pls do me a favor... comment if you like but DONT like this post Cos sometimes, IN goes n compile some of these more popular posts n sends it out in an email. Zzzzz. I don’t fancy my thoughts blasted out to random ppl in an email.
Can have a discussion here n that’s it.
There r ppl who actually know my identity irl so yea please.
@investingnote pls don’t, can?
1) CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
Now, this is actually one of the most important things. Some time ago, a few months ago I think, I had a short convo here with @theintelligentinvestor, prob one of the few real investors here with a long term track record. I must’ve misunderstood him Cos I tot he said he’d prefer to be vested 100% of the time, which I do not agree with at all. Anyway, his style, no matter how efficient, won’t be popular cos u guys want excitement, not the ROI.
Anyhow, with the carnage in the past 2 weeks, I think there’s no doubt how important having capital on standby is.
In the midst of the carnage, I’m really chilling Cos as of now, I’ve approximately $200k worth of bullets to deploy if I want to. Like I said, I m not scared of a recession... I’m scared of a recession and having no capital.
Or as the saying goes “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”
So a capital buffer is crucial
3 weeks ago, this $200k is burning a hole in my pocket. Yes yes, can u guys just imagine... if this $200k is put in some REIT.... say a 5% yield only.....
yet I’ve kept it completely liquid.
EVEN THEN, now.. $200k feels too little. It’s always like this. Lol.
2) TIMING THE MARKET
OK, to each his own, so maybe only 30% will agree with me whilst the rest have varying degrees of disagreement.
IMO, liquidating now is dumb.
Yup. Going cash NOW... is exactly what we’ve always said we won’t be doing!
Sure, if this becomes a full blown crisis, then maybe u look smart. If we flatline or recover from here.... you’re screwed.
And even if we go further down from here THEN recovers.... chances r, you’d still b screwed Cos you won’t be buying in n instead, “watch first and see how”
( I never understand wad that means. Watch what exactly? And see How means wad?)
Finally, don’t just take an opinion as the truth.
Look at the data on market timing. Very few get it right consistently. Add in to that, the role of luck, n u know u just can’t do it.
Yet people still try
Guess that’s how toto works.
Also, consider this: there are no fund managers I know, TA or FA or whatever, who swing to extremes. That is, fully vested n all cash.
Cos it’s not realistic anyway when your capital size gets larger.
3) FREE CASHFLOW!!
Long time readers of TTI would know I’m a massive fan of consistent, regular FCF positive companies. It’s like backwardation in the Commodities market: an invisible force that pushes you up every month without requiring an active effort.
And I try to replicate that in my daily life. I don’t write about Simi saving more la, wad change your lifestyle la, Simi how to live on a budget etc Cos... well, firstly, it’s subjective n based on your situation. For eg, u got a kid or 2, vs u r single, it’s completely different. Secondly, I don’t think life is meant to be endured. It’s meant to b savored. By that, I mean that I’d rather focus on the “top line” aka revenue, than the “expenses”. Thirdly... tbh, to me, it’s very childish n very amateurish to talk about Simi savings. I mean, for God’s sake, I’m assuming everyone here is an adult. If you’re above 12 n u need to read an article to tell u that in life, u need to produce more than u consume, and how to go about doing that.....
U must b kinda dumb.... (or Ang moh, aside from the Germans that is) LOLOLOL
In my personal life, I’ve managed to build a few streams of income aside from investing. Of course, like everyone else, there’s one main income, n the rest r the desserts. The sums I get are variable, and in fact tbh, if u ask me what’s my monthly income, I’m not too sure. (I know annual of course) I only know there’s always money when I need it, n I don’t need too much anyway.
And THIS, ties in nicely with the 1st point. If u don’t have the capital now... trying to accumulate now is... a bit too late. But if you’re at least FCF positive...
at least it’s a matter of time before you can build up your warchest.
That’s why, instead of focusing on the small stuff n trying to pinch on the little things, TTI suggests that we all look at the top line. Do the unpopular and difficult stuff to increase your FCF.
In my experience, u can increasing your savings IMMEDIATELY, but increasing your FCF takes a long term plan and takes years to execute before u see the results.
But it’s way better. Don’t try to do too many stuff... do only a few things but do it very well. It can be simple stuff. If u can do complex stuff better than everyone else... you’d b xtremely wealthy.
4) KEEP BUSY
In times of carnage... the best thing to do is stick to what your philosophy is when you thought of it in calmer times. But it’s difficult Cos now, your hormones r raging n the fear center in your cerebral cortex is in hyperdrive.
Forget about the markets
The best way to do this is to keep busy. That’s why I don’t really like the idea of co scantly trying to strive for “retirement”
I really think it’s sibei ironic that the richest and most successful people I know, die die won’t retire until the powers up there put them into the ground, whereas their underlings working a dead end job under them r always the ones keeping tab and dreaming of FIRE.
Come on, don’t u guys see it too? It’s everywhere. Isn’t it ironic?
It’s like u don’t want it, it will come to u. U want it... it either doesn’t come to u or comes to u in an arduous way n even then, at a pathetically low level.
That’s the irony of life. Maybe if someone manages to take over the world and dictates that ok, all u rich n successful guys who don’t wanna retire, give all your wealth to losers trying to, then everyone is happy in the world. Aka communist style. Too bad it’s not gg to happen in our lifetime.
Ok it’s starting to drizzle so... that’s it. Bye.