Final post for 2018 probably~

$Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI)

fully divested today, my last tiger general... sad to let it go but I have to follow my research, my analysis and my plans.

in 2016 there was much fears of rate hikes, reits were sold down badly and I took the opportunity to picked up 5 highest quality reits with best track records which I named the 5 tiger generals.. on average I paid below 1 times book value, yield on cost was around 6%+ , total capital committed was around 150k, about 30k average on each reit.

$CapitaMall Trust(C38U.SI)
$CapitaCom Trust(C61U.SI)
$Frasers Cpt Tr(J69U.SI)
$Suntec Reit(T82U.SI)
$Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI)

then came the big recovery in 2017 in which reits gained a whopping 20% and I started to slowly take profits on my reits position, slowly divesting one tiger general at a time.

On average I made a capital gain of a about 15% excluding dividends so overall I am quite happy with my picks and returns in this segment.

Looking forward I have a bearish outlook on reits, which I may be wrong. I have written much in my past posts in details. https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1039890

I still hold two small and in-significant reit position on $Mapletree NAC Tr(RW0U.SI) and $CapitaR China Tr(AU8U.SI) which I wrote about previously, these 2 reits make up less than 3% of my portfolio.... they are more of a value play as they trade at 15% discount to book and 7% yield.

On the flip side, I do not have telcos, I not have much dividends stocks anymore... my focus now is mostly on small cap fast growers like $HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI) $PropNex(OYY.SI) and large cap slow growers like $OCBC Bank(O39.SI) $JMH USD(J36.SI)

So I am currently mostly into grow stocks and today I added more propnex averaging up as I felt positive of the recent insider buying spree as both CEO and his family member aggressive open market purchases at 55 and 58 levels is a very good sign. I also wrote much in details about propnex as I believe its a solid small cap pick, similar to how I picked hrnet

https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1021960

STI most probably already bottomed out at 3100 level, so I am done shopping being 100% fully vested and will not be posting much for the rest of the year, will just hold and ride it out and wait for STI to recover past 3300 healthy levels.

Lastly I will be very busy for the remaining 2018 as I will mostly be overseas as I venture into a new area, agriculture related business in Vietnam as I believe with the trade war, many orders will shift out from china and into asean countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia etc

Real life recent example
I recently bought a pomelo farm,
Location 2 hours north from Hanoi
Cost about 30k SGD
Size about a football field, slightly bigger
Comes with a 2 story high but slightly old building which serves as a house/domintory for the worker
Hired 2 workers to do the cropping and harvesting, wages about $200 sgd each
Based on my business analysis, conservatively a pay back period of 3 years
This biz was sold to me by an old couple, they wanted the lump sum to go back to hometown for full retirement

so my time there mostly will be scouting for bargains in the agriculture segment to buyout and manage, hopefully after half a year when stable already let it auto pilot.

Cheers

Have a good year ahead, see ya guys in 2019 ^_^

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43 likes 88 comments
HappilyRetired

My 6 long term growth stocks that I am still holding in this crisis and trying to add more as they come cheaper
I always believe when the market turns fearful its always a great opportunity to be adding high quality companies on the cheap

Small Caps
$PropNex(OYY.SI)
$HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI)
$Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

Blue Chips
$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)
$OCBC Bank(O39.SI)
$JMH USD(J36.SI)

Quick Comments
the 3 small cap growth stocks PN HRN SS are all in net cash position with zero debt! without debt they will not be negatively affected by rising rates, which hurts companies with debt as their borrowing costs will increase and earnings pressured.

among the 3 blue chip growth stocks, thaibev would be deem very risky... in the most risky among the 6 due to its high gearing levels of 150%, however all debt has already been fixed from 2 to 10 years at average rate of 3.3%+. Therefore rising rates would not affect thaibev's interest cost as everything is already locked in and fixed for the next 10 years as they milk their cash cow and pay down the debt, as debt is cleared the earnings should gradually improve.

My portfolio currently has zero reits as I believe that reits will suffer the most when rates move higher, my view may be wrong but my focus now is purely more on growth stocks only. Cheers ^^

AvgJoe

Waiting for @Pomelo Farmer IPO

HappilyRetired

Reply to @AvgJoe : If good will keep forever, dun think will ipo out cash cow lol

tanweiming_

I found out that MCT NAV always increase by 5-6% every year.

Assuming that it will increase 5-6%, NAV will be $1.56

Will you enter again since the current price at $1.59 is just 3 cents away?

HappilyRetired

Reply to @tanweiming_ : MCT nav 1.50, i would only consider buying at book or lower
But i feel that reits will crash so will probably buy only at 10% discount to book or lower

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HappilyRetired

added more ocbc today at 1.2 times book value
at PE 10 and ROE%12, forward yield 4% for 2019
I really like this wonderful company and i do not mind paying a fair value

Do note that I am averaging up, i previously bought much in 2016 at 8 dollar levels and sold off DBS/UOB in recent year, so I basically taking the DBS/UOB cash to add more into OCBC

cheers

HappilyRetired

Changed my nick to pomelo farmer and updated my pic cheers

rafaellohyis

Reply to @HappilyRetired : Aiyo why you so cute! hahhahaha

HappilyRetired

thanks all for the support, hope things rebound for 2018 and we can have a positive closing for STI year end, hope 3300 to 3400 would be good enough

Fish

VN pamelo should be jhj. Good luck ~~~!

HappilyRetired

Reply to @Fish : Thanks for support ^_^

artemischan

thank u for sharing ur views and insights on the current market... happy farming.... new ventures = new opportunities..

HappilyRetired

Reply to @artemischan : Thanks for support ^-^

Incognito

Somehow I am quite confident with Mapletree group, be it on management, financial strength or corporate governance, I believe they will overcome these hiccups. So far all of their 4 REITs doing pretty well even under unfavourable environment. I do not foresee any major px movement so will be holding them for dividends and defensive play given the ongoing trade war. In fact just added 5K MCT at $1.61. Px should sustain this month as dividend coming. Good luck on whatever decision we made.

HappilyRetired

Reply to @rafaellohyis : Units of CMT were trading 1 cent higher at $2.23, or 1.14 times Dec-19F book value, prior to the midday trading break.

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HappilyRetired

Anyway so far i invested 30k in vietnam, so ideal if i am lucky enough to find similiar deals my intention is to invest up to 150k there for long term
So example 5 small farms at 30k each, total 150k
I still new to this so got high risk of failure
But even if i lose 100% i am comfortable as i still have my property and stocks in singapore to fall back on
Thanks all for support, cheers ^_^

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Expiry:
Target Price
$0.56
(+5.66%)
NOW:

Positive data on sept volume which is 50% more than oct
To TP 20,000 shares that i recently bought
Balance 100,000 keep for longer term

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$PropNex(OYY.SI)

MORGAN STANLEY

Singapore home prices may rise as much as 10 percent by the end of next year and are on track to double by 2030 as faster income growth overpowers recent property curbs and higher interest rates, according to according to Morgan Stanley.

Home prices rose in four of the five previous rate hike cycles, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note to clients. Faster economic growth, the city-state’s attraction as a global hub and demand from buyers flush with cash from en-bloc redevelopments will underpin the housing market, they said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20...

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Investing actully can be simple, straightforward and in fact very boring!

I have been doing the same thing over and over again for the past 12 years. In 2009 i did my analysis on challenger and it became a 5 bagger, in the article below i shared how i analyzed it and why i bought it.

- within circle of competence
- easy to understand business model
- proven track record of growth and earnings
- high ROE
- zero debt and super cash rich

A decade later i am still doing the same analysis on new companies, applying the same methods i learnt from reading peter lynch and warren buffett books

I read the ipo prospectus and annual reports of $PropNex(OYY.SI) $HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI) $Sheng Siong(OV8.SI) , try to understand their business models and purchase them at fair or low valuations to hold for long term. You all notice all of the above 5 rules applies to all these 3 small cap growth stocks, easy to understand, track record, high roe, net cash.

I have made over 15% average annual returns over the past 12 years and i see no reasons to change my methods or strategy, just plain old value investing till i become an old man

In the bear market it would shake you up with fear, but stay calm and continue to do what you have always done so successfully.

If what you did in the past was not successful, then its time to wake up and start all over again with an open mind, read more books and find that method that really suits you.

https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-...

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Investing actully can be simple, straightforward and in fact very boring!

I have been doing the same thing over and over again for the past 12 years. In 2009 i did my analysis on challenger and it became a 5 bagger, in the article below i shared how i analyzed it and why i bought it.

- within circle of competence
- easy to understand business model
- proven track record of growth and earnings
- high ROE
- zero debt and super cash rich

A decade later i am still doing the same analysis on new companies, applying the same methods i learnt from reading peter lynch and warren buffett books

I read the ipo prospectus and annual reports of $PropNex(OYY.SI) $HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI) $Sheng Siong(OV8.SI) , try to understand their business models and purchase them at fair or low valuations to hold for long term. You all notice all of the above 5 rules applies to all these 3 small cap growth stocks, easy to understand, track record, high roe, net cash.

I have made over 15% average annual returns over the past 12 years and i see no reasons to change my methods or strategy, just plain old value investing till i become an old man

In the bear market it would shake you up with fear, but stay calm and continue to do what you have always done so successfully.

If what you did in the past was not successful, then its time to wake up and start all over again with an open mind, read more books and find that method that really suits you.

https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-...

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Top 6 stocks in my portfolio
These 6 positions make up about 400k out of 500k+ of my portfolio

Blue chips
$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)
$OCBC Bank(O39.SI)
$JMH USD(J36.SI)

Small caps
$PropNex(OYY.SI)
$HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI)
$Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

- focus more on growth stocks
- have zero reits
- have zero telcos
- 100% vested no more cash
- cash inflow to purchase more ocbc or jmh

Read more

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