Final post for 2018 probably~

$Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI)

fully divested today, my last tiger general... sad to let it go but I have to follow my research, my analysis and my plans.

in 2016 there was much fears of rate hikes, reits were sold down badly and I took the opportunity to picked up 5 highest quality reits with best track records which I named the 5 tiger generals.. on average I paid below 1 times book value, yield on cost was around 6%+ , total capital committed was around 150k, about 30k average on each reit.

$CapitaMall Trust(C38U.SI)
$CapitaCom Trust(C61U.SI)
$Frasers Cpt Tr(J69U.SI)
$Suntec Reit(T82U.SI)
$Mapletree Com Tr(N2IU.SI)

then came the big recovery in 2017 in which reits gained a whopping 20% and I started to slowly take profits on my reits position, slowly divesting one tiger general at a time.

On average I made a capital gain of a about 15% excluding dividends so overall I am quite happy with my picks and returns in this segment.

Looking forward I have a bearish outlook on reits, which I may be wrong. I have written much in my past posts in details. https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1039890

I still hold two small and in-significant reit position on $Mapletree NAC Tr(RW0U.SI) and $CapitaR China Tr(AU8U.SI) which I wrote about previously, these 2 reits make up less than 3% of my portfolio.... they are more of a value play as they trade at 15% discount to book and 7% yield.

On the flip side, I do not have telcos, I not have much dividends stocks anymore... my focus now is mostly on small cap fast growers like $HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI) $PropNex(OYY.SI) and large cap slow growers like $OCBC Bank(O39.SI) $JMH USD(J36.SI)

So I am currently mostly into grow stocks and today I added more propnex averaging up as I felt positive of the recent insider buying spree as both CEO and his family member aggressive open market purchases at 55 and 58 levels is a very good sign. I also wrote much in details about propnex as I believe its a solid small cap pick, similar to how I picked hrnet

https://www.investingnote.com/posts/1021960

STI most probably already bottomed out at 3100 level, so I am done shopping being 100% fully vested and will not be posting much for the rest of the year, will just hold and ride it out and wait for STI to recover past 3300 healthy levels.

Lastly I will be very busy for the remaining 2018 as I will mostly be overseas as I venture into a new area, agriculture related business in Vietnam as I believe with the trade war, many orders will shift out from china and into asean countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia etc

Real life recent example
I recently bought a pomelo farm,
Location 2 hours north from Hanoi
Cost about 30k SGD
Size about a football field, slightly bigger
Comes with a 2 story high but slightly old building which serves as a house/domintory for the worker
Hired 2 workers to do the cropping and harvesting, wages about $200 sgd each
Based on my business analysis, conservatively a pay back period of 3 years
This biz was sold to me by an old couple, they wanted the lump sum to go back to hometown for full retirement

so my time there mostly will be scouting for bargains in the agriculture segment to buyout and manage, hopefully after half a year when stable already let it auto pilot.

Cheers

Have a good year ahead, see ya guys in 2019 ^_^

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MasterLeong888

My 6 long term growth stocks that I am still holding in this crisis and trying to add more as they come cheaper
I always believe when the market turns fearful its always a great opportunity to be adding high quality companies on the cheap

Small Caps
$PropNex(OYY.SI)
$HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI)
$Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

Blue Chips
$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)
$OCBC Bank(O39.SI)
$JMH USD(J36.SI)

Quick Comments
the 3 small cap growth stocks PN HRN SS are all in net cash position with zero debt! without debt they will not be negatively affected by rising rates, which hurts companies with debt as their borrowing costs will increase and earnings pressured.

among the 3 blue chip growth stocks, thaibev would be deem very risky... in the most risky among the 6 due to its high gearing levels of 150%, however all debt has already been fixed from 2 to 10 years at average rate of 3.3%+. Therefore rising rates would not affect thaibev's interest cost as everything is already locked in and fixed for the next 10 years as they milk their cash cow and pay down the debt, as debt is cleared the earnings should gradually improve.

My portfolio currently has zero reits as I believe that reits will suffer the most when rates move higher, my view may be wrong but my focus now is purely more on growth stocks only. Cheers ^^

AvgJoe

Waiting for @Pomelo Farmer IPO

MasterLeong888

Reply to @AvgJoe : If good will keep forever, dun think will ipo out cash cow lol

tanweiming_

I found out that MCT NAV always increase by 5-6% every year.

Assuming that it will increase 5-6%, NAV will be $1.56

Will you enter again since the current price at $1.59 is just 3 cents away?

MasterLeong888

Reply to @tanweiming_ : MCT nav 1.50, i would only consider buying at book or lower
But i feel that reits will crash so will probably buy only at 10% discount to book or lower

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MasterLeong888

added more ocbc today at 1.2 times book value
at PE 10 and ROE%12, forward yield 4% for 2019
I really like this wonderful company and i do not mind paying a fair value

Do note that I am averaging up, i previously bought much in 2016 at 8 dollar levels and sold off DBS/UOB in recent year, so I basically taking the DBS/UOB cash to add more into OCBC

cheers

MasterLeong888

Changed my nick to pomelo farmer and updated my pic cheers

rafaellohyis

Reply to @HappilyRetired : Aiyo why you so cute! hahhahaha

MasterLeong888

thanks all for the support, hope things rebound for 2018 and we can have a positive closing for STI year end, hope 3300 to 3400 would be good enough

Fish

VN pamelo should be jhj. Good luck ~~~!

MasterLeong888

Reply to @Fish : Thanks for support ^_^

artemischan

thank u for sharing ur views and insights on the current market... happy farming.... new ventures = new opportunities..

MasterLeong888

Reply to @artemischan : Thanks for support ^-^

Incognito

Somehow I am quite confident with Mapletree group, be it on management, financial strength or corporate governance, I believe they will overcome these hiccups. So far all of their 4 REITs doing pretty well even under unfavourable environment. I do not foresee any major px movement so will be holding them for dividends and defensive play given the ongoing trade war. In fact just added 5K MCT at $1.61. Px should sustain this month as dividend coming. Good luck on whatever decision we made.

MasterLeong888

Reply to @rafaellohyis : Units of CMT were trading 1 cent higher at $2.23, or 1.14 times Dec-19F book value, prior to the midday trading break.

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MasterLeong888

Anyway so far i invested 30k in vietnam, so ideal if i am lucky enough to find similiar deals my intention is to invest up to 150k there for long term
So example 5 small farms at 30k each, total 150k
I still new to this so got high risk of failure
But even if i lose 100% i am comfortable as i still have my property and stocks in singapore to fall back on
Thanks all for support, cheers ^_^

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Recommended & Related Posts

https://masterleong888.blogspot.com/2019/0...

My Current Portfolio (ranked by position sizing)
Top position - $HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI) - awaiting AGM
2nd - $ThaiBev(Y92.SI) - awaiting 2019 earnings recovery rally
3rd - $PropNex(OYY.SI) - awaiting AGM
new position - $F & N(F99.SI) - still accumulating shares of this asset play
old old old position - $OCBC Bank(O39.SI) - nothing... just hold for long long long
looking to add more at 90 and 1.00 - $Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)

my quote for the day

Small Minds Talk of People
Average Minds Talk of Events
Great Minds Talk of Ideas

Have a good weekend ahead ^_^

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https://masterleong888.blogspot.com/2019/0...

*** additional notes

I currently do not hold any reits

Prefer to be vested in net cash companies such as $HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI) $PropNex(OYY.SI) $Sheng Siong(OV8.SI) which will not be affected by higher rates as they have zero debt on their balance sheet

While also prefer Banks like $DBS(D05.SI) and $OCBC Bank(O39.SI) as they would benefit from better net interest margins if rates moves up

$ThaiBev(Y92.SI) looking to continue taking profits as it goes higher, their debt has all been locked up for the next 10 years but gearing remains high at 150%

At 30% ROE i believe 1/3 goes to dividend payment and 2/3 goes to debt payment thus gearing can be reduced at 20% per year and in 5 years time gearing would be back to a healthy 50% stable level.

ML

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$PropNex(OYY.SI)

https://masterleong888.blogspot.com/2019/0...

My previous thoughts on propnex, now awaiting the recovery.
Fair value 0.65, hope it can go back to IPO price by end of 2019.
Very heavily vested as I made a strong conviction buy in Propnex last year.
Looking to sell a bit if 65 level comes and keep at least 100,000 balance for long term.

Cheers
Master Leong

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My updated portfolio post super re-balancing, sold everything else to really focus fire on these 6 stocks only

$ThaiBev(Y92.SI) 200,000 shares
$PropNex(OYY.SI) 200,000 shares
$OCBC Bank(O39.SI) 7,000+ shares
$JMH USD(J36.SI) 1000 shares
$Sheng Siong(OV8.SI) 50,000 shares
$HRnetGroup(CHZ.SI) 50,000 shares

totally out of cash to buy already, so will just leave these 6 stocks to grow for long long term, cheers ^_^

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